Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Windy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Windy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 56 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 91 near the shore to 65 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 74 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph shifting to the east up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and breezy trades continue through next week with passing showers focused over windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

High stability prevails as a strong inversion remains established around 6kft. The typical diurnal trend of clearing low clouds and diminishing showers was somewhat muted yesterday, and to a lesser extent today, courtesy of moisture trapped beneath this inversion in addition to the presence of high clouds which limited cloud top warming. Suspect this will be a theme with any pockets of trade wind moisture during the next few days as mid-level ridging strengthens and the inversion further strengthens and lowers through Tuesday. The lowering inversion and strengthening ridging will likewise favor strong trade winds Sunday through Tuesday. In particular, local accelerations through the windier portions of Maui County and the Big Island will be augmented by the lowering inversion and dry advection at the top of the boundary layer providing modest forcing for descent of the existing momentum field. This will enhance gustiness/downslope potential and will may warrant a Wind Advisory for those areas as early as Sunday with greater confidence for Monday and Tuesday.
The inversion then lifts and weakens slightly by Wednesday as a band of deeper trade wind moisture advances through the area bringing a slight uptick in clouds and showers for windward and mauka zones. Combined with slight weakening of governing high pressure, this will help take the edge off of strong trade winds as they weaken slightly for the remainder of the week.

Aviation

Strong high pressure to the north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain fairly stable conditions and breezy easterly trade winds across the region through the next several days. Passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours, bringing the potential for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely persist into early next week as breezy trade winds continue.

Marine

High pressure will remain anchored far north of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next several days, which will support fresh to strong trade winds across the area. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters until early Monday, but this will likely need to be extended for at least some zones as the gusty trades persist into early next week. The surface high will move eastward and weaken slightly during the second half of the week, but winds are likely to remain locally breezy in the typical windier channels and waters south of the Big Island throughout much of the next seven days.
Surf along all shores will remain mostly unchanged through the rest of the weekend, though south shore surf is expected to slowly decline as a south swell fades over the next several days. The next small, medium- to long-period south swell is expected to arrive late Tuesday through Wednesday. This swell may boost south- facing shore surf heights to near summertime averages as it peaks on Wednesday. It will then decline through the rest of next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy in response to the gusty easterly trade winds.

Fire weather

Marginal fire weather conditions will exist into the middle of next week as easterly trade winds strengthen, the inversion falls from its current height of 6kft to at least 5kft and strengthens, and the resident airmass trends slightly drier. The KBDI will remain a touch below criteria (600) throughout this time limiting the liklihood of fire weather headlines.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov