Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 50 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 50 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs 85 to 91 near the shore to 65 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through the week, then strengthen to breezy to locally windy by early next week. Conditions remain mostly dry, with clouds and showers focused over mainly windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours.

Discussion

Moderate to locally breezy trades have developed across the state this afternoon as high pressure builds far northeast of the area. Mostly dry conditions continue with pockets of clouds and showers moving into windward and mauka areas at times. An incoming batch of moisture will impact windward Big Island and Maui this evening, but rainfall amounts should remain light. Otherwise, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and passing showers under stable conditions.
Trades will strengthen further over the weekend, becoming breezy to locally windy by early next week as high pressure continues to build north of the islands and a drier airmass moves into the area. The combination of drier conditions with stronger trades could bring elevated fire weather concerns. While this is still several days out, and confidence remains low at the moment, conditions will be monitored leading up to the weekend and into next week.

Aviation

High pressure to the north will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the next several days with strengthening expected tomorrow through the weekend as the high pressure strengthens. Trade wind showers should follow a diurnal trend of wetter at night and drier during the day, and be mostly confined to windward and mountain areas. A few of these showers could occasionally spill over to leeward areas, and any showers especially in the night time or early morning could have MVFR conditions. Overall VFR conditions are expected.
No AIRMETs are currently in place however windward and mountain areas could receive more MVFR conditions tonight or early tomorrow morning, and there is good a chance of AIRMET Tango tomorrow for low level turbulence as the trade winds strengthen.

Marine

A weak trough to the northwest of the state will continue to maintain gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds across the state through Thursday as it drifts slowly westward. High pressure far north of the state will strengthen Friday into the weekend with fresh to locally strong trade winds expected. Winds are expected to further strengthen early next week with widespread strong trade winds possible. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) could return as early as Thursday morning or afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island.
The current south swell will slowly decline over the next couple of days. Surf heights should still hold near the summer time average (5 feet) till around Thursday before dropping Friday into the weekend. Tiny, long-period south swell energy will hold into next week, with below average surf expected.
Along east facing shores, surf will continue to remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong trades. An increase of rough and choppy surf is expected this weekend into next week as the trade winds strengthen. No significant swells are expected through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov