Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 57 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy and haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy and haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 57 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 64 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades deliver showers windward and mauka through the week.

Discussion

Strong mid-level ridging positioned north of the islands supports a corridor of active subsidence in maintenance of the rather uniform 7kft trade wind inversion evident on this morning's soundings. The batch of moisture that brought showers to much of Oahu this morning now resides over and upstream of Kauai where trades will remain on the wetter side for the next several hours. Breezy trades will usher this moisture west of island during the first half of tonight. Stable trades then prevail with little in the way of change through at least Thursday.
The resident subtropical jet remains a fixture through the week mainly serving to funnel pockets of high clouds across area skies. A potively tilted mid/upper trough axis remains anchored along the northern periphery of this jet and is presently positioned well west of the islands. As the week progresses, however, this feature will evolve eastward tending to close off and deepen with time. This will assist in slightly weakening the local pressure gradient as subtle surface pressure falls commence leading to slightly weakened trades. The low latitude origin of the low will limit available instability, but it will nonetheless weaken the inversion and will likely give existing trade wind showers a boost as early as Thursday night or Friday.

Aviation

VFR from Oahu through Big Island as breezy, stable trades prevail. An area of enhanced moisture will bring MVFR to windward and interior sections of Kauai for the next several hours before trades finally usher it west of the area. VFR then prevails areawide for the second half of the night through Tuesday afternoon with MVFR limited to isolated instances within heavier showers.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for windward Kauai.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate lee turb.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will persist through much of the week as as an area of high pressure remains far northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) covers the typical windy waters near Maui and the Big Island through Tuesday. This SCA will likely be extended through mid to late in the week.
The current moderate period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf to south facing shores through tonight, then slowly decline through mid-week. By the end of the week, only small background south swell will exist.
Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy due to the breezy trade winds through the week. A series of small northwest swells will keep small surf in place along north facing shores through the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov