Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to windy trade winds will persist through early next week, bringing periods of windward and mauka showers as bands of moisture move through.

Discussion

Model guidance remains in decent agreement, showing a strong low- to mid-level ridge anchored north of the islands holding firm into next week. This pattern will support a breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern across the state. A weak upper trough nearby will keep the inversion weak and slightly elevated, allowing for occasional increases in windward showers as shallow bands of moisture move through. Trade winds strengthen again over the weekend as a stronger high builds north of the state. By Sunday, more widespread windy trades are expected with the potential for advisory-level winds in typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island.
Looking ahead to next week, trades will remain strong with a robust high positioned north of the islands. The remnants of the front passing north of the state are expected to settle southward into the islands early next week, bringing another period of wet and windy conditions.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds will prevail for the next several days, with the strongest wind speeds occurring between mid-morning and late afternoon. Scattered showers will move into windward areas on the trade winds, most widespread during the overnight through morning hours. Brief MVFR ceilings/vis are likely in passing showers, though VFR should prevail.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the middle of next week.

Marine

A series of strong highs to our north will maintain strong trade winds with near gales for our windier channels around Maui and the Big Island through the middle of next week. Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Hawaiian waters due to the strong trade winds and elevated seas.
As the current moderate northwest (310-320 degree) swell begins to fade tonight, a slightly larger reinforcing pulse from the northwest (310-330 degree) will fill in tonight and peak late tonight into Saturday. Offshore buoys northwest of Kauai is starting to show a rise in the 14 to 16 second energy bands and this swell produce advisory level surf. High Surf Advisory has been issued for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. This swell will then begin to fall from late Saturday through early next week and the swell direction will gradually veer toward the north-northwest as it declines.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough into next week due to this persistent fresh to locally strong trade flow over and upstream of the islands. Trades could possibly strengthen further early next week, which could increase the windswell a touch around Tuesday into Wednesday.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small with mainly some wrap around wind swell for select exposures. A small long-period south- southwest swell is possible next Wednesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov