Hilo

Tonight: Haze in the evening. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 53 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 59 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy and haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 66 to 83. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Haze in the evening. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 53 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Haze in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to 46 to 51 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Haze through the day. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 70 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 45 to 52 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure near Kauai will keep light to moderate trades blowing over the eastern islands while land and sea breezes remain common over the western end of the state through mid week. Rather dry weather will prevail during this time, with a few showers along windward slopes and coasts each night and over the island interiors each afternoon. An approaching front will strengthen south to southeast winds and increase rain chances Thursday and Friday, mainly over the western islands. A ridge building over the state should bring drier conditions and lighter winds Saturday, with a new approaching front strengthening south winds and increasing rainfall chances next Sunday.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1035 mb high is centered just off the Pacific Northwest coast of the CONUS, with ridging extending southwestward to near Kauai. Light to locally moderate trades are present across the island chain this evening, with the lightest winds over the western end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows daytime heating driven cloud cover decreasing, with radar imagery showing minimal shower activity confined primarily to the windward slopes of the Big Island. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances.
The surface ridge axis will remain near Kauai through Wednesday, keeping moderate east-southeasterly trades blowing over the eastern end of the state. Lighter winds will prevail over the western islands, where overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes will be common, particularly in the more sheltered leeward areas. Rather dry weather will prevail during this time. A few showers will be possible along windward slopes and coasts at night and during the early morning hours, and over the interior and leeward sections of the islands each afternoon.
An approaching front will allow winds to pick up out of the south and southeast Thursday and Friday, potentially bringing an increase in showers to the western islands, particularly Kauai. Meanwhile, rather dry weather will persist over the eastern end of the state. The front appears to stall out near or just north of Kauai late in the week, then weaken into a trough and lift northward over the weekend. A surface ridge axis should build over the state on Saturday, keeping winds rather light, and shower activity minimal. A stronger front appears to approach from the west next Sunday, bringing an increase in south to southwest winds and higher chances for showers and potentially thunderstorms.

Aviation

Light to moderate ESE winds and land/sea breezes expected through tomorrow night. With that being said interior and leeward SHRA will be possible. MVFR conds will be possible in SHRA but in general VFR conds should prevail. A few SHRA will also be possible along windward and mauka locations.
While Kilauea has once again paused in its eruption cycle, there is some degassing occurring causing some hazy conditions across some portions of the state. While this hasn't been enough to add to any TAFs its worth mentioning there could be some haze.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

Marine

Weak surface ridging north of the islands will steer light to moderate ESE winds through much of the week before turning southerly as deep low pressure tracks north of the area.
Forerunners of a moderate, long period NW (310) continues to fill in at the offshore NDBC buoys (51001 and 51101) this evening near guidance and should arrive locally after midnight tonight and peak through the Monday morning hours before subsiding Monday night. Since this swell appears to follow guidance well a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is not needed at this time. A slightly larger, long period NW (300-310) swell will build into the area late Monday night into Tuesday easily reaching HSA thresholds and potentially reaching low-end warning criteria along exposed N and W facing shores. This swell will hold through mid- week and then decline Thursday. Another slightly larger, long period NW (320) swell will build late Thursday night, peak Friday night into Saturday well into High Surf Warning thresholds, before slowly subsiding through Sunday.
Surf along E and S facing shores remains small through the period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov