Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 44 to 51 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 44 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph becoming up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph becoming up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 47 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 64 to 72 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 46 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure far to the north and northeast of Hawaii will drive breezy trade winds through rest of the weekend. A slight increase in windward showers tonight into Sunday. Light winds are expected through the first half of next week as a front approaches. This front will move through Thursday with some showers along the frontal band.

Discussion

High pressure far to the north and northeast of Hawaii will drive breezy trade winds through the rest of the weekend. Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies over the islands this afternoon with some cloud build ups over the lower slopes of the Big Island. 00Z soundings show a strong inversion around 6 kft with a dry 1 inch precipitable water. Plenty of dry air aloft perists from a broad upper ridge over and just north of the state. Tonight into Sunday, a weak upper trough will graze past the northeast side of Hawaii and may bring some cloud and shower enhancement. Any showers that do occur will focus over windward and mauka areas with leeward areas seeing little, if any, precipitation.
Trade winds will weaken to a light and variable pattern from Monday through Wednesday as a cold front approaches the state from the northwest. This lighter flow will allow for the development of land and sea breezes and limited shower activity over interior and leeward areas each afternoon and land breezes helping to clear out cloud cover overnight.
Current model guidance suggests that the cold front will move into Hawaii during the second half of next week as it weakens. Rainfall amounts do not appear to be very significant, and will be brief as the front quickly moves through. Winds will strengthen out of the north behind the front around Thursday and eventually veer to the northeast by Friday.

Aviation

Breezy trades continue through tonight, easing slightly on Sunday. Clouds and showers tend to focus windward and mauka. Patchy MVFR expected mainly tonight into early Sunday, but VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for lee turb.
AIRMET Tango may be needed for moderate upper turb over the western half of the state tonight.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will prevail through Sunday, easing Sunday night into early next week as the ridge weakens and shifts south due to a series of cold fronts passing to the north. Small Craft Advisory remains in place through the weekend over the the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Starting late Sunday night, the trades will quickly ease, likely enough for overnight and early morning land breezes and daytime sea breezes. This pattern will persist through the first half of next week as the background flow shifts southeast Sunday night into Monday, then south to southwest Tuesday through midweek as a cold front approaches.
Surf along exposed north and west-facing shores will continue to gradually ease over the weekend as the current northwest swell fades out. By Tuesday, surf will begin to rise again, with a significant upward trend anticipated through the second half of next week. This increase will be driven by a decent-sized fetch developing over the far northwest Pacific, near the Aleutians from the Date Line to the Kuril Islands. Heights could exceed warning- levels late next week if conditions evolve as projected. Seas should also exceed the Small Craft Advisory threshold of 10 feet for coastal zones exposed to the northwest swells.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the weekend but will gradually decrease late Sunday and into much of next week as the trade winds diminish.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain near seasonal averages, influenced by a mix of short-period southeast swells and occasional longer-period background south-southwest swells.
Peak monthly tides combined with water levels running higher than predicted could lead to minor coastal flooding issues for vulnerable low-lying coastal areas. The best chance for these impacts will occur during the early morning high tides between midnight and daybreak through the weekend.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Relatively dry conditions will persist statewide through Wednesday. A weakening cold front will drift into the western islands from Thursday to Friday, briefly increasing shower activity especially over the western half of the state.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov