Hilo

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming south up to 10 mph after midnight.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Relatively dry and stable conditions will persist through mid week with light winds that will allow for sea breezes each day and land breezes overnight. A front will move through Kauai on Thursday then dissipate around Oahu or Maui County on Friday. The chance of rain will increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary with moderate to locally breezy northeast winds behind it.

Discussion

A dry and stable air mass will remain in place through Tuesday due to a ridge of high pressure over the state. Winds will be light and variable with a background southerly flow. Winds should be light enough for day time sea breezes and night time land breezes. Day time sea breezes will lead to afternoon clouds over interior and mountain areas with a few light showers possible. Over on the Big Island, there is a pocket of moisture moving in from the south, which should produce some showers over southeast Big Island during the next few days especially during the afternoon and evening.
Starting Wednesday, a front will begin to approach the state from the northwest and will bring an increase of southerly winds especially around Kauai. Chances of showers will gradually increase on Wednesday mainly for the western end of the state as the front approaches Kauai. By Thursday, the front is expected to be over or through Kauai with some prefrontal showers increasing over Oahu and possibly parts of Maui County. The front is expected to eventually stall out and dissipate near Oahu or Maui County on Friday. Overall the front does not look very impressive, but it could bring some light to moderate rainfall to some much needed locations on the leeward side. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible late Thursday into Friday, in the area where the frontal boundary stalls.
Moderate to locally breezy trades should briefly return over the western half of the state on Friday. Trades will be short-lived as another front passes north of the state, which should weaken the trades. Weather for the weekend still remains quite uncertain with most of the ensemble members showing some type of upper level trough pushing through the state. Stay tuned for more details.

Aviation

A deep ridge over the state will maintain a stable and rather dry land and sea breeze pattern and prevailing VFR for the next couple of days. With the surface ridge parked over the central islands, background southwest winds will be slightly stronger around Kauai, but all islands will experience daytime sea breezes that will generate some interior clouds each afternoon. Any ceilings will mainly be VFR, and little rainfall is expected. Overnight land breezes will lead to clearing over most areas. No AIRMETs anticipated.

Marine

A ridge of high pressure over the state will maintain gentle south to southeast winds through Wednesday as a weak front passes north of the state. A second front will move into the northwest offshore waters Wednesday, move down the island chain through Thursday, before stalling near Maui and dissipating Friday. Northerly winds behind the front will quickly become northeasterly trades as the front weakens and a weak high develops northwest of the state.
A series of northwest swells generated by a complex gale low system south of the Aleutian Islands will keep surf elevated along north and west facing shores throughout the week. A moderate, medium-period northwest (320-330 degree) swell is running a bit behind guidance, so now expecting it to fill in later this evening through tonight and peak late Tuesday morning. A second, similarly- sized, but slightly longer-period northwest swell is expected to overlap on Tuesday morning. Surf heights are anticipated to peak at or just above advisory levels Tuesday then hold just below advisory levels through Wednesday. A couple of larger northwest swells (310-330 degree) may boost surf well above advisory levels Thursday into Friday. The compounding swells would also likely elevate significant wave heights above small craft thresholds of 10 feet during this time.
An out-of-season, long-period, small south swell will peak today, generating near summertime average surf along south facing shores. then slowly trend down through Wednesday. The next small, long-period south swell is expected slowly fill in during the second half of the week and peak over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will decline as a lingering small, short-period north-northeast swell fades today and wind swells remain small due to light southerly flow during the first half of the week.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the week. Even though daytime relative humidity values may briefly approach critical levels early in the week, winds will remain light and preclude any fire weather concerns. Showers increasing late Wednesday into Thursday, could bring some light to moderate rainfall over leeward areas.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov