Hilo

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday Night: Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday Night: Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 55 mph.

Saturday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Update

The latest forecast continues to the describe the situation well, therefore requiring no amendments at this time. The overnight period for most locations continues to showcase limited clouds and showers, with the only exception restricted to the windward portions of the Big Island. Expect winds to remain generally breezy to windy, especially over wind-prone locations, as noted by the latest Wind Advisory persisting through Sunday morning.

Synopsis

Windy trade winds will persist into the weekend, and then weaken heading into next week. A drier airmass over the islands will bring critical fire weather conditions to leeward areas through early this evening and again Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. A band of moisture being carried in on the trades late Saturday into Sunday will boost shower activity once again.

Prev discussion

/ISSUED 407 PM HST Fri Nov 15 2024/
This afternoon, strong surface high pressure remains centered roughly 1300 miles NNE of Honolulu and is dominating the weather pattern across the central and eastern Pacific. Locally, the high is producing strong and gusty trade winds across the islands. Surface observations have shown sustained wind speeds near 30 mph with gusts up to near 50 mph at times over the windiest locations of Maui County and the Big Island. These strongest winds are occurring over leeward locations, through valleys and in channels where strong downsloping and funneling effects occur. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Maui County and the Big Island through early Sunday morning.
The 00z soundings at Lihue and Hilo show remarkably strong inversions at around 6,000-7,000 feet with very dry air aloft, keeping shower activity limited and shallow today. Latest radar and satellite imagery shows only scattered clouds moving into windward and mauka locations, and most areas of the state are dry. CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable Water imagery aligns with the current observations, showing the large area of dry air across much of the NE Pacific nudging its way westward across the state. With this dry air in place, expecting that most areas will see limited clouds and showers through early Saturday.
The forecast becomes a bit tricky on Saturday as leftover moisture from a front will be carried into the islands on the trade wind flow, increasing shower activity across the state. The challenge is with timing, however. Most guidance holds off on bringing this moisture band into the islands until later in the afternoon, with a pocket of very dry air lingering over the islands through at least midday. With the windy trade wind flow continuing, expect clouds and showers to be focused over windward and mountain areas. Additionally, an upper trough will move over the eastern end of the state, coinciding with the low-level moisture band. This will work to increase instability a bit, and isolated thunderstorms have been added to the forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening for windward portions of the Big Island with this afternoon's forecast updates.
By the end of the weekend, the high pressure far north of the islands will begin to weaken, which will weaken the trades for the first half of the new week. There are some indications that moisture could linger a bit near the Big Island well into next week, but overall, the pattern looks to be drier once again for the smaller islands.

Aviation

Strong high pressure northeast of the islands should keep strong and gusty trades for the next couple of days. Low cigs and SHRA should mainly impact windward and mauka areas. A few SHRA could make it to leeward sides. While brief MVFR conds are possible with any SHRA, VFR conds will prevail.
AIRMET Tango for mod low-level turb over and downwind of island terrain for the next several days.

Marine

Strong high pressure will remain stationary through Saturday far northeast of the islands. The high should gradually weaken Sunday as the pressure gradient slowly weakens through the beginning of next week. A Gale Warning remains in effect through Sunday night for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all remaining coastal waters through Sunday night for strong winds and seas greater than 10 feet.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to trend down through the weekend as the short period northwest swell continues to decline. A small, medium period northwest swell is expected to fill in Sunday night and linger through the first half of the week. A small to moderate, short to medium period north swell will build over the second half of next week although uncertainty remains as the system has yet to develop.
Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain large, rough, and choppy through Sunday night coinciding with the strong trade winds. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Sunday night for all east facing shores. Next week east facing shores look to drop as the trade winds ease through the week.
Surf along south facing shores, is expected to remain tiny to flat through the forecast period. Shorelines exposed to the easterly wind wave on south and north facing shores may continue to see an uptick over the weekend.
Peak monthly tides are forecasted in the early morning hours through Monday morning. These high tides combined with elevated seas from strong trade winds may increase coastal inundation impacts for vulnerable locations during the morning high tides. This has prompted a Coastal Flood Statement which will continue through early Monday morning.

Fire weather

Drier air remains situated over the islands, and relative humidity values did briefly drop to around 45% or lower in some areas of the state today. Fuels remain dry, and gusty trades are expected to continue through Saturday. While most guidance suggests a slight increase in dewpoints (and thus slightly higher relative humidities) for Saturday ahead of the incoming moisture band, satellite imagery depicts very dry air upstream of the islands (which is counter-intuitive of what the hi-res guidance suggests). Given that the timing of the remnant moisture is a bit uncertain, brief/borderline RFW conditions were observed today, and winds will be similar on Saturday as they were today, the Red Flag Warning was extended through Saturday afternoon. As the band of remnant moisture moves into the region later in the day on Saturday, however, fire weather concerns will diminish.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Red Flag Warning until 4 PM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Waianae Mountains, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Lanai Mauka, Maui Leeward West, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Maui/Upcountry, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kohala, Big Island Interior.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, Koolau Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, South Haleakala, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Molokai North, Molokai West, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov