Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Veterans Day: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Veterans Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Veterans Day: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Veterans Day: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Veterans Day: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 51 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Veterans Day: Sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 64 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds are expected to persist through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations as areas of moisture move through. The trade winds are forecast to become strong and gusty starting around Wednesday and lasting into the weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement, showing breezy easterly trades continuing as deep layer ridging remains positioned to the north. Despite the stable conditions in place with a strong subsidence inversion, a shallow cloud band drifting into the area will support an increase in windward shower coverage overnight through Monday morning, particularly for the windward areas of the smaller islands. Rainfall accumulations should remain on the light side, with very little reaching leeward sections. This cloud band will gradually diminish and shift west of the area late Monday through Tuesday as drier air fills in.
Confidence in the trades becoming strong and gusty starting around Wednesday and lasting into the weekend is increasing, as strong high pressure builds to the north in the wake of a cold front. The tail end of this front could settle southward into the area Friday through Saturday. The increase in moisture, combined with lowering upper heights, could enhance shower activity over windward areas if this scenario materializes.

Aviation

Breezy trades will continue for the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA should mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas. Isol spillover to lee areas is possible. MVFR conds can be expected in heavier SHRA, but otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Tango for mod low-level turb remains in effect over and downwind of all island terrain.

Marine

A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain fresh to locally strong E trade winds through Tuesday. The high will then drift eastward through Tuesday and another stronger high pressure system will build in N of the islands by Wednesday. Trade wind speeds will strengthen to near gale levels from Wednesday onward into the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island and will likely slowly expand in coverage over the next two days to include all Hawaiian Coastal Waters from Wednesday onward.
The forerunners of the next moderate NW (320 degree) swell is passing through the offshore buoys 50001 and 51001. This swell will continue to build into Hawaiian waters through the morning hours, peaking near advisory levels by Monday evening. This swell will be followed by a slightly larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in from late Tuesday into Wednesday, which should produce advisory level surf along N and W facing shores.
Surf along E facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range models are showing a significant increase of wind waves Wednesday through the end of the week due to a large fetch of strong trade winds setting up over and upstream of the state. This will lead to surf heights building and exceeding advisory thresholds along E facing shores during its peak.
Surf along S facing shores will remain small and near the seasonal average through the middle of this week. Mainly background S swell pulses linger in the long range forecast.
Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards end of this week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation impacts during the early morning high tide periods for vulnerable coastal areas on all islands. The large wind waves combined with the peak monthly tides could cause greater impacts along eastern shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov