Hilo

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 84. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then clear in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers early in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Locally breezy trade winds will persist through tonight, bringing isolated showers to windward areas. Winds will diminish Monday, and remain light for the remainder of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge aloft to support a mostly dry weather pattern. A wetter and more active weather regime may develop by next weekend.

Discussion

Locally breezy and stable trade winds will persist through tonight, bringing just a few showers to windward areas. Winds will diminish Monday, and will remain light for the remainder of the week. The light winds will combine with a ridge aloft to support a mostly dry weather pattern.
An area of low pressure will persist in one form or another for most of the next week while another low develops far northeast of the islands Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to a significant reduction in the low-level pressure gradient leading to light east to southeast winds through this week. The ridge aloft will remain overhead, and a mostly dry regime is likely. Best chance for a shower may be over leeward areas in the afternoons as sea breeze convergence drives cloud formation, with a slight chance of windward showers at night.
Although confidence is quite low due to significant spread in the guidance, a slow-moving low aloft may develop near the islands next weekend and into early next week, potentially leading to a more wetter and more active weather regime for a few days.

Aviation

Moderate ENE trades will diminish and veer to ESE tonight through Monday as conditions remain mostly dry and VFR. Weakening trades will give rise to localized offshore land breezes in choice sheltered locales tonight followed by a hybrid sea breeze pattern on Monday as sea breezes expand in coverage, especially on Oahu where PHNL will see winds turn SE by late morning.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds will continue into tonight as high pressure remains north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through 6 am tomorrow. Winds will then decrease tomorrow morning and remain light through Friday as two lows are forecast to form far northwest and northeast of the waters.
A small, short-period north to northwest swell will gradually diminish and shift to a more northeasterly direction by Tuesday. Tiny background northwest energy is expected through the week before a forecasted low to the northeast sends a moderate medium period northeast swell by the end of the week. South facing shores will see background south swells that will keep surf from going flat. A small, long- period reinforcement is expected to arrive Monday night and decline through the week followed by another on Friday.
A Coastal Flood Statement (CFWHFO) for all coastal zones is highlighting the fact that higher than forecast water levels are combining with full moon high tides, bringing the potential for minor coastal flooding, mainly during the early morning hours through Monday morning.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov