Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 54 to 61 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to 54 to 61 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will hold through the end of the week. Our typical dry season trade wind pattern is expected Wednesday through Saturday with passing showers focused over windward slopes.

Discussion

Latest satellite and radar imagery is showing scattered showers over select windward areas and some light to moderate showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island and Ulupalakua area of Maui. Some of the showers near Kona is producing rainfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour. These showers should decrease this evening as the sun sets.
A 1031 mb high sitting far north of the state should weaken some over the next several days and will result in the trade winds weakening a touch. Overall, we should see moderate to locally breezy trade winds hold through the weekend with a decrease possible early next week.
As far as rainfall, we should see our typical dry season weather with mostly dry conditions across leeward areas and scattered showers over windward areas primarily during the night and early morning hours return on Wednesday and persist through Saturday. Shower coverage could be slightly higher tonight due to the lingering moisture as evident by some of the leeward showers this afternoon. By early next week, global models are showing an upper level low dropping southward and within the vicinity of the state around Monday. At this time, it is too early to tell whether or not this will bring any unsettled weather to the state. But if it does, we could see an increase of shower coverage as early as Sunday of next week. Stay tuned for more details.

Aviation

A stable, moderate to breezy trade wind flow will prevail during the next couple of days. Pockets of moisture moving along the trade wind flow will produce areas of MVFR conditions along windward slopes, and we will monitor for potential AIRMET Sierra mountain obscuration tonight. While VFR will dominate over most leeward areas, afternoon and evening cloud cover with isolated MVFR conditions will affect the Kona slopes of the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence over and downwind of terrain will likely remain in effect during the next couple of days.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong trades will briefly ease Thursday and Friday before rebounding for the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 AM HST Thursday.
A short-lived fresh swell originating with a thunderstorm complex well SE of the islands will traverse area waters through Thursday bringing a modest bump to favored S and SE facing exposures. Another slight bump in S shore surf is possible early next week as a slightly larger SW swell advances toward the islands. East shore surf will hold near seasonal levels through Wednesday, then slowly lower Thursday through early next week. North shore surf will remain very small through the weekend followed by a bump early next week as a small medium-to-long period NW swell arrives.
The combination of high astronomical tides and water levels running around 0.6 to 0.8 feet higher than predicted will produce localized coastal inundation around the time of high tide this afternoon. The Coastal Flood Statement highlighting potential impacts will likely be dropped late this afternoon, since the magnitude of the tides will be decreasing during the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov