Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 71 to 77 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers until early morning. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will gradually strengthen to become breezy tomorrow through early next week as a surface ridge to the north of the islands regains control. Occasional upticks in windward and mauka showers can be expected over the next day or two, but dry and stable conditions will generally prevail through the weekend. Sunday night into early next week a plume of tropical moisture combined with a mid-level disturbance will increase shower activity, particularly for the southern end of the state.

Discussion

A return to a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is expected through this weekend as a weakening surface trough north of Kauai lifts northwestward and a surface ridge to the north of the islands takes control. Moderate to locally breezy trades will gradually strengthen to become breezy by Friday and will persist into early next week.
Satellite imagery shows a low cloud band moving into the eastern end of the state this afternoon, with most of the Big Island covered by low clouds with light showers and low clouds expanding across Maui as well. As seen immediately upstream, drier air will filter across the state by late tonight and then be followed by another plume of low level moisture leading to an uptick in windward and mauka clouds and showers tomorrow night. Otherwise, a mostly dry and stable trade wind pattern will follow and persist through the weekend as the ridge remains north of the area.
Heading into early next week, a plume of moisture extending up from the tropics with total precipitable water values near 1.5 to 2.0 inches combined with a mid level disturbance moving across the area will increase shower activity Sunday night through Monday, particularly for the southern end of the state. Showers will primarily focus over windward and mauka areas, but the mid level disturbance could lift/weaken the inversion and allow for more shower coverage over leeward areas as well.

Aviation

No AIRMETs currently in effect this morning. Trade winds strengthening today with VFR conditions expected in most areas across Hawaii. A band of low clouds spreading over eastern Big Island will bring possible localized MVFR ceilings and visibility, and will consider AIRMET Sierra today if coverage increases over the Big Island. Directional LLWS may be possible on approaches/takeoffs from PHOG/OGG through the day.

Marine

Light to moderate trade winds will gradually strengthen into the moderate to fresh range tonight and continue through the weekend. Models indicate that the winds across the waters around Maui County and the Big Island may reach locally strong conditions, with Small Craft Advisories possible as early as Friday morning. As high pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, trade winds will increase into the moderate to locally strong range, keeping the need for an SCA for those waters.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as a short to medium-period north swell fades through Friday, returning to mostly flat levels over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will rise to near normal levels Friday through the weekend as trade winds return and strengthen. A mix of background southwest and southeast swells will produce small surf for south facing shores over the next few days. A slight uptick is expected from the south-southwest this Friday as a small long-period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov