Hilo

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 86 to 91 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 86. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 86. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy with isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 76 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 85 to 92 near the shore to 68 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 75 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades weaken by late Tuesday as humidity declines. A dry and stable pattern will limit rainfall potential through the remainder of the week.

Discussion

Regional water vapor shows dry air continuing to expand in situ in response to active subsidence beneath the resident 592dm ridge axis. This subsidence will serve to strengthen the existing trade wind inversion and keep a firm lid on any shower activity that develops. Meanwhile, upstream visible imagery suggests rather dry boundary layer conditions exist well upstream extending from Hawaii to the West Coast. With no real prospects for mid-latitude systems to seed the trades with moisture, the expectation is for a dry and stable trade wind pattern to persist through the forecast period. Locally breezy trades continue into tomorrow then weaken as mid-latitude troughing encroaches on the forecast area from the north. The gradient weakens in response to regional surface pressure falls and trades settle into the light to moderate range late Tuesday through the weekend.

Aviation

Breezy trade winds will continue through tonight, weakening Tuesday into Wednesday. AIRMET Tango is posted for moderate low- level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands due to the winds and stability.
Clouds and light showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, where brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible tonight.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the waters will remain stationary as moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue through Tuesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Tuesday afternoon. By midweek, high pressure weakens to the northeast and the ridge moves south towards the islands. As this happens, the trades decline to gentle to moderate speeds Wednesday through the end of the week.
Surf along east facing shores will plateau at small, choppy levels into Tuesday due to the locally strong trades, then decrease slightly as trades ease through the rest of the week. North and south shores exposed to the trade wind swell will see a tiny wrap through Tuesday. Small background swells from the south and southeast will keep the surf from going entirely flat for south facing shores. A small, medium-period northerly swell is expected to arrive Thursday night and hold through most of next weekend, which should give north facing shores a small boost in surf.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov