Weather Forecast

Hawaii County Weather Forecast for August 29, 2024

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Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

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Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

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Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 77 near the shore to 54 to 59 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 92 near the shore to 68 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A surface ridge of high pressure far north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds through Thursday, with periods of embedded showers moving into windward and mountain areas. As tropical storms Gilma and Hector approach the state from the east, they will weaken considerably. Weather impacts from these systems are favoring additional periods of wet weather for the islands heading into this weekend.

Discussion

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through tomorrow as a broad ridge of high pressure remains centered far north of the state. A moisture plume extending well out ahead of Tropical Storm Gilma can be seen clearly on CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water satellite imagery and has been responsible for bringing an uptick in shower activity last night through the day today. Automated rain gauge reports over the last 24 hours (totals ending at 2 PM HST this afternoon) indicate that most windward areas across the central part of the state (Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Oahu) received a quarter to a half of an inch of rain, with some locations exceeding an inch. Later in the afternoon, showers have also been filling into Kauai and the Big Island, as well as into some leeward areas across the state. This uptick in trade wind showers will continue overnight into tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow, model guidance suggests that a narrow swath of drier air and some weak subsidence ahead of Tropical Storm Gilma may briefly reduce the shower activity.
As Gilma nears the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow night into Friday, it will rapidly weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low as it interacts with a combination of cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Current forecast trends have Gilma, though weakening, holding together as a remnant low as it skirts west- northwest somewhere along the island chain. At this time, the strongest winds (around 30 kts or less) are still expected to remain over the eastern coastal/offshore waters and winds along land areas and leeward coastal waters will actually weaken and take on a more southeasterly component Friday into Saturday. These weaker winds may allow for shower coverage to expand across leeward portions of the state due to increased potential for sea breeze activity and increased moisture being routed around island terrain. Timing of the heaviest rainfall is looking like it will be Thursday night through Saturday morning. Even though widespread flooding is not expected with current forecast rainfall totals in the 1 to 3 inch range, localized flooding could be possible. Other than the potential for rain, moisture moving in as Gilma passes nearby will raise dew point temperatures by a few degrees, making it feel a bit muggier through the weekend.
With all of this said, slight variations in the track would bring noticeable differences in the forecast. A slight shift in forecast track to the north would mean less rainfall for the islands, and a slight shift to the south would bring higher rainfall totals across the state. Stay tuned for forecast updates.
Remnants of Tropical Storm Hector will follow closely behind Gilma as a weak surface trough with a diffuse moisture plume sometime Saturday night into Sunday and bring a slight uptick in shower activity during this period. No significant impacts are expected from remnants of Hector at this time.
Heading into next week, moderate to breezy trades will return as high pressure builds across the state once again and drier air will limit cloud and shower coverage.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue across the region through Thursday. Showers will generally favor north through east sections of the islands as moisture embedded within the trades moves into the state from the east. Meanwhile, afternoon sea breezes over leeward sections of the Big Island have resulted in moderate cumulus development along south and west facing slopes of the Big Island. These clouds will persist into early evening, but overnight land breezes will promote clearing. Showers are expected to increase over windward areas tonight through early Thursday, which could introduce occasional MVFR conditions once again.
Attention will then turn to Tropical Storm Gilma, which as of the latest advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center was located about 500 miles E of Hilo. Gilma is expected to weaken to a remnant low and pass close to the main Hawaiian Islands Friday into Saturday. Enhanced moisture out ahead of Gilma could enhance showers and bring MVFR conditions to portions of the island chain beginning late Thursday.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration will be possible later tonight.

Marine

Locally fresh easterly trades back to northeasterly during Thursday in response to the approach of Tropical Storm Gilma. In the wake of the tropical storm, winds back to southeasterly. With the strongest winds confined to the northern half the system, relatively minimal change is anticipated in the magnitude of winds in the nearshore waters during this time. However, this will be sensitive to the exact track and will be subject to revision in future forecasts. Moderate to locally fresh ESE trades then continue through the weekend, strongest over the eastern half of the state.
Surf along east facing shores has peaked just below the high surf advisory threshold today in response to medium moderate period swell emanating from TS Gilma. This surf will hold steady through much of Thursday before fading Thursday night into Friday. The remainder of the forecast period will be characterized by typical short period trade wind swell.
Surf along south facing shores will trend down today. Below average surf is then expected Thursday through the weekend as tiny background south swells move through. Summertime average surf may return next week as a series of small, long period southerly swells begin to fill.
North facing shores will see small surf develop Thursday into Friday as a small, medium to long period swell advances through area waters. This swell will peak Friday and gradually diminish through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

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