Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Partly sunny. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Strong trade winds will persist into early next week, bringing brief showers to windward and mauka areas. There's a potential for increased windward shower coverage tonight through Friday due to an approaching weak upper disturbance from the east.
Discussion
The surface ridge is expected to strengthen gradually over the next few days, typically strengthening the trade winds locally. However, an approaching mid- to upper-level trough could temporarily weaken these winds later today through Friday. Prior to this, there remains the possibility of a short-fused wind advisory for lower elevations in the typical windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island through the day. Strong northeast winds at the Big Island Summits are holding early this morning due to a tight pressure gradient aloft, but have begun to trend down. That trend will should continue as the upper trough moves through. This trough could also weaken the strong subsidence inversion, potentially increasing windward shower activity tonight through Friday, with some showers reaching the dry leeward areas of the smaller islands.
Guidance suggests seasonable trade wind conditions continuing this weekend through early next week, with the ridge remaining strong to the north. The strong trades could ease slightly later next week as the ridge weakens. Showers will favor the typical windward areas, with minimal accumulations expected.
Aviation
Windy trade winds will continue for the next couple of days, with passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Expect mainly VFR, with brief MVFR in showers/low clouds.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for most windward areas.
AIRMET Tango for low-level mountain lee turbulence will remain in effect for the next several days due to the strong trades. May also need AIRMET Tango for strong surface winds greater than 30 kt this afternoon.
Marine
Strong- to near gale-force east to northeast trades with seas up to the 10 ft advisory level will continue through early next week as the ridge holds strong to the north. The strong trades could ease slightly later next week as the ridge weakens.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through early next week due to the strong trades locally and upstream of the state. A downward trend is possible next week as the upstream fetch weakens and the local trades begin to ease around midweek.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up as overlapping south-southwest swells move through. After a brief down trend today, a fresh south-southwest pulse arriving Friday will result in an upward trend going into the weekend. A more significant south swell will gradually fill in late Saturday night into Sunday, then likely reach the advisory level late Sunday through Monday. A gradual downward trend is expected Tuesday through midweek.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,
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