Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure northeast of the state will maintain moderate to breezy trade winds through early next week. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. A trough aloft will move over the islands Friday through early next week, bringing an increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located around 775 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high is centered around 1550 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds prevail, strongest over the eastern end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with a few showers drifting leeward across the smaller islands. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
High pressure will strengthen well northeast of the state during the next couple days, while the trough of low pressure west of the area lifts slowly northward. Wind speeds will trend up slightly, but remain at moderate to locally breezy levels. The trough will dampen out Friday through the weekend, while high pressure northeast of the state settles southwestward and closer to the island chain. This should give the trades another slight boost, with breezy trades then holding through early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry trade wind weather should prevail during the next few days, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts particularly at night and during the early morning hours. Troughing aloft will move over the islands Friday and linger through early next week, bringing an increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue through the 24-Hr forecast period and beyond, with clouds and showers favoring windward slopes and coasts. Expect periods of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in clouds and showers moving through, particularly overnight through the early morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of most islands this morning. Conditions should improve by the late morning hours.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through the week as the surface ridge remains positioned north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for a majority of the waters around Maui County and the Big Island through Thursday and additional waters around Oahu and Kauai may be needed for Thursday and Friday. Winds across the Kauai waters will fluctuate between east and east- southeast today due to a persistent surface trough to the west. A shift out of the east-northeast is expected beginning around Thursday as the trough weakens and drifts away from the region.
Surf along exposed south-facing shores will remain small throughout the next few days, due to a combination of background south- southwest and southeast swell energy. An upward trend is expected from Friday as a long run of south-southwest swell will maintain elevated surf as storm activity in the western half of the South Pacific remains well aimed towards Hawaii. Additional reinforcements will likely keep surf elevated through the first week of June.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain small and choppy throughout the week as the trades persist.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain near the summertime average each day. Guidance depicts a small, long-period swell arriving early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov