Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. West winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 64 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 55 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 65 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 64 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 55 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 65 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 81 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the morning hours, decreasing to moderate levels by this afternoon. A passing weak upper level disturbance will drift over the islands today enhancing passing showers with a few thunderstorms possible over the Big Island. An unstable band of clouds and showers will drift into the islands on the trade winds, bringing another round of wet weather for all islands from Wednesday into Thursday. An upper trough moving into the region from the north will keep wet weather in the forecast lasting into the weekend.
Discussion
Local island radar imagery shows numerous showers riding into the windward and mountain slopes of all islands this morning. Some of the stronger showers are drifting over drier leeward areas. Satellite water vapor channel imagery continues to show a weakening upper level low slowly drifting from west to east across the island chain. This upper low will produce enough instability to keep wet trade winds in the forecast today with isolated thunderstorms over the Big Island as it tracks eastward across the state.
A 1030 mb high pressure system remains far north of the island chain and will continue to produce breezy easterly trade winds across the state through the morning hours. By this afternoon we will transition to more moderate wind speeds as the high pressure system drifts eastward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Expect light to moderate easterly trade winds to continue through the rest of the week with a hybrid wind pattern of trade wind and sea breezes over terrain sheltered leeward areas.
Wetter than normal conditions remain in the forecast for all islands through much of this week. Enhanced showers will continue into Monday as a weakening upper level disturbance drifts from west to east across the island chain. Tuesday will trend a bit drier. An unstable band of clouds and showers, remnants of an old East Pacific cold front, will drift into the islands on the trade winds producing wet weather for all islands from Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level trough sweeping in from north on Thursday and Friday will likely keep enhanced showers in the forecast into next weekend.
Aviation
Breezy easterly trade winds will persist today, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. MVFR conditions will be possible in showers, especially across windward areas overnight through the early morning hours. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere. Although confidence is low, added instability associated with an upper low in the area could lead to an isolated thunderstorm over the Big Island this afternoon.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration will persist over windward portions of each island through the morning hours.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet downwind of island terrain due to the winds. Additionally, moderate turbulence aloft (FL280-FL380) is expected today.
Marine
A high pressure system north of the state has shifted east overnight easing the fresh to strong breezes over some zones. Thus the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters has been scaled back to typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui County through today. SCA conditions may drop late Tuesday into Wednesday as the high continues to track east and weaken. Expect gentle to locally fresh trade winds to prevail Wednesday through Friday as a trough develops north of the state and lingers. In addition, a few heavy showers will be possible today.
Pulses of south to southwest swell are due this week, with High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions expected by Thursday. The PacIOOS buoy off of Lanai is still showing some inconsistent energy in the 16 to 18 second range so have keep surf numbers elevated this morning but with a gradually down trend later today through Wednesday. Forerunners from a larger and longer lived south- southwest swell will arrive Wednesday, and surf is expected rise to the HSA level during the peak of the swell Thursday and Friday.
A pair of small northwest swells will move through over the next several days. The Hanalei PacIOOS buoy shows some northwest energy in the 14 to 18 second range filling in early this morning. Expect this swell to continue to spread down the island chain today, peaking Tuesday, and declining late Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind- driven waves of 8 to 9 feet at 9 seconds will maintain rough east shore surf above the May average through today. As trade winds decline over the next few days, these seas will gradually decline to around May average by Tuesday, then drop to below average for the rest of the week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST early this morning for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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