Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 62 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Very windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 80 near the shore to around 62 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with showers. Lows 62 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A very strong high pressure system will set up north of the state today, leading to windy and gusty trade winds lasting into Friday. Periods of showers will favor typical windward and mountain areas. The stronger of these showers will briefly drift into drier leeward areas at times. Trade wind speeds will decrease to breezy levels by this weekend. A disturbance aloft will send high clouds over the islands today.
Discussion
A very strong high pressure system continues to build far north of the Hawaiian Islands today. This high center will weaken as it drifts south from Thursday through Sunday. Meanwhile a cutoff low continues to linger roughly 600 miles northwest of Kauai. A band of thunderstorms is forming this along the southeastern flank of the cutoff low. High level cirrus clouds will continue to drift over all islands through the evening hours, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors. Morning upper air balloon soundings at Lihue on the island of Kauai show temperature inversion heights in the 6,000 to 7,000 foot range. This inversion height along with the stronger trade winds should keep scattered to numerous showers over all windward areas through this evening. More isolated shower coverage remains in the forecast today for leeward areas.
Wet trade wind weather will continue into the weekend with higher shower coverage in the overnight to early morning hours. The upper level cutoff low northwest of the state will tend to add some instability into the mix over the western islands. Trade winds will blow across all islands at windy levels through Thursday. Wind advisories remain in effect for the windier zones of each island until Thursday evening. Some of these wind advisory areas may need to be extended into Friday. Maui and Big Island summits wind speeds will be lighter and remain below wind advisory thresholds during this event.
Trade winds will slowly ease over the weekend with breezy conditions. Mostly windward showers will favor the overnight to early morning hours. Slight drying trends will develop during the first half of next week as the low level ridge drifts over the islands ahead of a cold front farther to the north dives towards the island chain. Clouds and enhanced showers may briefly develop over all islands by the middle of next week as this weakening cold front moves quickly from north to south through the state.
Aviation
Breezy to windy easterly trade winds will persist, with clouds and showers favoring windward slopes and coasts. Expect periods with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in showers, particularly overnight through the early morning hours as areas of moisture move through. Some showers will spill over into leeward areas of the smaller islands periodically.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for N through E sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence over and southwest through northwest of mountains remains in effect for all islands.
Marine
The central pressure of a strong, slow-moving surface high far N of the islands will peak near 1052 mb today, driving strong to gale-force E trade winds. The high will drift S and gradually weaken from Thursday into Sunday, but wind speeds will be slow to diminish until later this weekend. A Gale Warning is posted for windier areas around Maui and the Big Island, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect elsewhere. The Marine Weather Message (MWWHFO) contains the details.
A small to moderate, short-period (~10 seconds) N swell will peak today, then gradually diminish. The strong trade winds near and upstream of the islands are driving increasing short-period (8-10 seconds) wind waves toward the islands from the ENE, and latest near shore PacIOOS buoy observations indicate combined seas have increased to 10-12 feet. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for E facing shores of islands exposed to this trade wind swell, with details in the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWHFO). Elsewhere, a small, medium-period SSE swell is possible over the weekend.
Fire weather
Long-term conditions over leeward areas are drier than normal for this time of year. Though the Keetch-Byram Drought Index measured in Honolulu will remain well below the critical 600 mark this week, the strong and gusty trade winds will elevate the fire danger over the drier leeward areas through Friday.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for windier areas of most Hawaiian Islands.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for east facing shores.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian Waters outside of the Gale Warning areas.
Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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