Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Occasional showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 42 to 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny and windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph.

Puna

Today: Occasional showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 60 to 66 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 80 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 61 to 68 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 45 to 50 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 62 to 69 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy northeast trade winds will continue through next week focusing clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas, periodically reaching leeward areas.

Discussion

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough axis across the eastern part of the state with an upper level low developing southwest of the state. Meanwhile, a 1033 mb surface high centered around 900 miles to the northeast is driving breezy trade winds across the islands. Radar shows mostly light to moderate showers with a few heavier showers embedded moving mainly over the smaller islands. While the focus of these showers is along windward and mauka area, some showers are reaching leeward sides of the smaller islands due to the breezy winds.
The upper trough will slide east of the state while an the upper level low remains nearly stationary southwest of the state. The surface high will continue to strengthen slightly allowing wind speeds to gradually increase through today. A wind advisory has been issued for Big Island summits and some lower elevations regions near ridges and passes of the Kohala district and South Point Kau District through Sunday. Although a drying trend is expected through Sunday, the upper level low will aid in advecting moisture in the mid and high levels, increasing mid to high level cloud and possibly shower coverage over the state beginning with the Big Island today then reaching Kauai Monday and lingering through much of next week. Low clouds and showers will continue to track across the islands with the breezy winds, focusing along windward and mauka and occurring during the overnight and early morning hours. Leeward sides will also continue to see period showers at times.
The strong high pressure to the north will slowly drift east and weaken Tuesday, but will quickly be replaced by another high by Wednesday. Thus breezy trades will continue through much of next week, easing briefly Tuesday. Showers will continue to focus along windward and mauka areas with a few showers reaching leeward areas, especially early to mid week as moisture levels increase.

Aviation

High pressure to the northeast, with an associated ridge north of the state will maintain breezy trade winds through the weekend. Showers are expected to remain focused over windward and mountain areas in the trade wind flow. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in clouds and showers, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for mechanical low-level turbulence over and downslope of the mountains. Expect this to remain in place through the weekend.
AIRMET SIERRA was recently issued for the east facing slopes of the Big Island as an area of clouds and showers has moved in. Anticipating conditions will improve later this morning, but additional clouds and showers could lead to additional AIRMETs.

Marine

Surface high pressure northeast of the state will gradually strengthen over the next couple of days, resulting in persistent strong trade winds this weekend. A brief decrease of winds is possible early next week, but another high will quickly build north of the state by the middle of next week. Trade winds should restrengthen by the middle of next week with strong to near gales expected during the second half of the week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters through Sunday afternoon.
A moderate long period northwest swell should steadily fill in across the smaller islands this morning and peak during the day today. Based on the latest buoy readings from buoy 51001 and 51101 northwest of Kauai, surf heights are expected to remain below High Surf Advisory (HSA) thresholds along north and west facing shores. However, a larger west-northwest to northwest swell will arrive Sunday, and will likely result in HSA level surf for exposed shores Sunday night into Monday. Due to the westerly component of this swell, surf heights may approach HSA thresholds for west facing shores of the Big Island on Monday.
Short period easterly wind wave swell will trend upward this weekend as trade winds gradually increase. As the trades strengthen even further later next week, we should see another uptick along east facing shores the second half of next week. South- facing shore surf will remain at background levels for the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kohala, Big Island Interior, Big Island Summits, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov