Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 66 to 79. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 66 to 79. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Monday: Sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate northeast trades will shift out of the east later today through Monday, then continue through the first half of the week. Despite the drying trend from west to east, some residual moisture lingering over the eastern end of the state from a recent front will support mostly cloudy skies, along with a few showers persisting this morning over windward areas. Otherwise, mostly dry and stable conditions are anticipated through the first half of the week, with the best rainfall chances favoring windward and mauka areas overnight. A return of breezy easterly trades and increasing rainfall chances is possible through the second half of the week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.
Discussion
Satellite imagery shows an area of low-level moisture and clouds lingering across the eastern end of the state from a frontal boundary that recently passed through. The early morning upper air sounding reflected this and showed a moist profile up to the trade wind inversion near 7 kft. Showery conditions have resulted this morning over windward and mauka locations of the Big Island, where accumulations have reached around a quarter of an inch over the past 6-12 Hrs. Expect this trend to continue through a good portion of the day before drier air spreads into the area and the clouds begin to scatter. Elsewhere, outside of a few morning windward showers, expect mostly dry and stable conditions today with moderate northeast trades.
Guidance remains in good agreement, indicating dry and stable conditions continuing through the first half of the week as upper heights rise over the region and the aforementioned moisture near the Big Island dissipates. This will create a more suppressed environment with precipitable water values remaining around an inch or less. Trades will shift out of the east beginning later tonight and maintain moderate levels. The best chances for a few showers will be over typical windward and mauka locations overnight through the early mornings. Any leeward showers are more likely to occur in the afternoons, where localized sea breezes form.
A gradual strengthening and destabilization of the trade wind flow is possible Wednesday into Friday. There is higher confidence that trades will likely increase as a deeper surface high sets up far north of the state, potentially resulting in breezy conditions by Friday. An upper-level trough will slowly pass over the region during this time, bringing 500 mb temperatures as low as -16C on Wednesday night and Thursday. While there could be some increase in shower coverage in response to the added instability, a mid-level ridge may be able to maintain stability and lower the chances of heavy rainfall.
Aviation
Light to moderate trade winds will rebuild over the state today. Bands of clouds and light showers off the Pacific will favor north and northeast facing slopes and coast. Late night soundings reveal plenty of low-level moisture persisting over the far eastern end of the state, and strong stability statewide. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration for northeast facing slopes of the Big Island is thus expected to remain necessary through midday and possibly beyond. VFR cloudiness will prevail elsewhere across the state.
Marine
Weak high pressure will drift north of the state the next few days. This will result in moderate to locally fresh east trade winds through the middle of the week. A new high settling in from the north late in the week will tighten the regional pressure gradient enough to produce fresh to locally strong trades.
The current near 5 foot, medium period northwest (300-320 degree) swell will continue to slowly fall through Tuesday. The far northwest buoys are sensing a reinforcing moderate size, longer period northwest (320-330 degree) swell this morning. This swell should be enough to push today's already slightly elevated surf up a notch to near High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along many better exposed north and west-facing shores through Monday afternoon. The arrival of a significant moderate size, long period northwest (310-330 degree) swell late Tuesday and Wednesday will likely produce solid mid week advisory level surf with a late week decline to below HSA heights Thursday. A slight boost to south surf is expected from today through Tuesday as a small, long period south (200 degree) swell moves around the islands through Tuesday. East shore surf will remain small through early next week with a slight pick up in chop anticipated later in the week with strengthened trades.
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