Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
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ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Showers likely. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
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Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Showers likely. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
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Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
An approaching front will keep winds light and variable through today. Some pre- frontal showers will develop today along with interior showers from daytime heating this afternoon. The cold front will move through the island chain later today through Thursday while weakening. Breezy northeast winds will follow the front ushering in cooler and drier weather through the rest of the week, except for portions of the Big Island and Maui where moisture from the front will linger.
Discussion
Clouds and showers have increased over and near Kauai during the past couple of hours, in-line with latest model guidance. Radar indicates mostly light scattered showers with a couple of isolated heavy showers. These clouds and showers are progressing towards Oahu and will bring scattered moderate to locally heavy rain over Oahu during the morning commute. Surface winds will remain light ahead of the front today, and the convective response Tuesday adds confidence that another round of interior clouds/showers can be expected this afternoon.
A cold front will move through Kauai and Oahu tonight and early morning Thursday before weakening and drifting over Maui and the Big Island through Thursday. Shower activity will increase for north and northeast facing slopes and coasts ahead of the front. Model solutions show that the chance for measurable rain will be highest near the Big Island and parts of Maui county as moisture from the front lingers Friday through the weekend. Meanwhile, the western islands may see very little rain as the drier and slightly cooler post- frontal airmass settles in behind the front. In addition, mid and upper level ridging will build, further increasing stability as a weak surface high builds north of the state. Northeast winds will but gusty behind the front then become more moderate Friday through the weekend and the shift more easterly.
Aviation
A weak cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will keep wind speeds in the light to moderate range for the next few days. A weak disturbance moving over Kauai and Oahu will produce brief MVFR conditions over portions of each island. Land and sea breezes will develop with clouds and isolated showers developing each afternoon over island mountain and interior sections. VFR conditions will prevail.
No AIRMETs currently in effect. AIRMET Sierra might be issued later this morning for tempo mountain obscuration near Kauai or Oahu.
Marine
A front will push down the island chain late today through Thursday night, with moderate to fresh northerly winds filling in behind the front. Winds will shift northeast at moderate to fresh levels on Friday as a weak high builds northwest of the state. Winds will ease into the light to moderate range and shift to a more typical east-northeasterly trade wind direction over the weekend into early next week as the weak high passes by to the north of the state. Winds are expected to remain mostly below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds through early next week. SCA level seas will likely impact portions of the marine area as a large northwest swell moves through Thursday into early Saturday.
The current moderate sized long period northwest swell will gradually decline today. A new more significant northwest swell is expected to build late tonight and Thursday morning, then peak at warning levels Thursday afternoon through Friday along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands. Advisory level surf appears likely with this swell along west facing shores of the Big Island Thursday night through Friday night as well. This swell will decline Friday night and Saturday, with a reinforcing northwest swell building Saturday night, keeping some moderate sized surf in place along north and west facing shores through early next week.
Small surf will persist along south facing shores through Saturday, with a slight boost possible Sunday through early next week. East shore surf will trend down during the next couple days, then remain well below normal through early next week.
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