Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 65 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 49 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs around 74 near the shore to 62 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 65 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 59 to 66 near the shore to 49 to 56 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with numerous showers. Highs around 74 near the shore to 62 to 70 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 46 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday: Occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 79 near the shore to around 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 60 to 67 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 44 to 50 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to around 63 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Trade winds will prevail into next week, favoring an east-southeast direction through Friday. Winds will strengthen over the weekend, then remain breezy next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas, but some will occasionally spread to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
Discussion
A dry and stable mid-level airmass is entrenched over the islands at press time. This airmass is supported by a mid-level ridge that will gradually erode during the next 24 hours or so as a zonally oriented 90 kt jet snakes its way eastward. In the meantime, high stability characterized by a strong subsidence inversion anchored around 7.5kft will prevail. Rather moist ESE boundary layer winds with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s will facilitate a healthy shower coverage over windward and mauka zones, but high stability will maintain a firm cap on shower depth and intensity.
A couple bands of showers positioned east of the islands, one associated with a remnant cold frontal boundary, will sweep through the area Friday evening through Saturday. This will bring an increase in shower coverage to windward, mauka, and possibly even some leeward areas mainly overnight and during the early morning. Weakly cyclonic flow along the northern periphery of the resident upper jet will maintain weakly stable conditions heading into next week. A somewhat drier airmass will fill in behind the aforementioned remnant frontal zone on Saturday (dewpoints around 60). Nonetheless, cooler temperatures aloft (around 850mb) will foster relatively steep boundary layer lapse rates conducive for shallow shower production. Such showers will be modulated by the typical diurnal trend and will be embedded within continued widespread breezy trade winds at the surface. Breezy trades are then modeled to continue for the balance of next week.
Aviation
Locally breezy trade winds are expected today and throughout the next several days. Latest infrared satellite imagery shows that broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds continue to stream across portions of the state, particularly the western islands. A few light trade wind showers will be possible along coasts throughout the next 24 hours and beyond. Meanwhile, leeward sea breezes will support cumulus development along west facing slopes and coasts in the afternoon and evening hours. A strong inversion aloft will inhibit vertical cloud development, however, so any showers that do develop should be light in intensity.
Isolated MVFR conditions will be possible at times within showers, but in general, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at most locations. The current AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration along windward sections of the Big Island will likely be able to be dropped later this morning. AIRMET Tango may be needed for moderate low-level turbulence later today as surface wind speeds increase a bit.
Marine
Fresh to strong east-southeast trades will continue today, then shift out of the east and become strong for most waters over the weekend through early next week. The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to most Hawaiian waters, which will continue through the weekend.
Surf along north and west facing shores will gradually ease today as a medium-period northwest swell begins to move out. An upward trend is expected over the weekend as a fresh, long- period north-northwest swell arrives late tonight, then builds down the island chain through the day Saturday. This swell will peak late Saturday through Saturday night, likely driving the surf along exposed coasts to the advisory thresholds. A slow downward trend is expected by late Sunday.
Surf along exposed north and east facing shores will trend up early next week as a medium-period north-northeast swell arrives. Surf heights will likely reach the advisory levels as this swell peaks Monday through Tuesday (potentially near the warning level for east facing shores). Otherwise, short-period/rough surf is anticipated along exposed eastern shores due to the strong trades locally and upstream.
Surf along south facing shores will potentially trend up late next week as we move into March due to a long-period south swell arriving.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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