Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 43 to 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 68 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to around 68 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Partly sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.
Saturday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 59 to 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 81 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 61 to 67 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 45 to 51 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 61 to 66 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Easterly trade winds will gradually ease through Saturday as a surface ridge to the north weakens. Showers will favor windward and mauka slopes, while most leeward areas remain dry. Trade winds will break down late Saturday through Sunday, leading to a land and sea breeze pattern with limited showers. A shallow dissipating front is expected drift over Kauai and Oahu Monday night and Tuesday under light northerly winds. Southwesterly winds are expected to develop around Wednesday as a stronger front approaches.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement through the weekend and shows a weakness forming in the surface ridge as a couple of fronts pass north of the area. The low-level flow will gradually ease and shift out of the east-southeast, likely enough for a land and sea breeze regime to begin for most areas as early as Saturday night. Shower coverage will remain limited to windward areas through Saturday, with mostly dry and stable conditions holding over leeward areas.
The tail-end of the second front passing north of the area will begin to approach Sunday. A combination of the approaching boundary, lowering upper heights as a weak pulse aloft moves through, and daytime heating should be enough to trigger a few showers where sea breezes form Sunday. Otherwise, limited moisture in the area will support mostly dry conditions persisting.
A rather dry and light northwesterly flow on Monday will give way to northerly winds that should push the dissipating and shallow front down to Kauai or Oahu on Tuesday. These islands will likely experience some light shower activity, but little rainfall is expected elsewhere.
Southwesterly winds are expected to develop around Wednesday and could become gusty as a stronger front approaches. Timing on this frontal passage is uncertain but favors next Thursday.
Aviation
A low pressure trough approaching the islands from the northwest direction will break down the ridge north of the Hawaii region and decrease wind speeds into the light to locally moderate range through the weekend. In the absence of large scale winds, local scale land and sea breezes will continue to expand in coverage over each island. Clouds will build over island interiors each day in sea breeze winds, and then clear out each night in stable land breezes. Shower activity will be limited in this weather pattern with isolated to scattered coverage.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turb between FL180 and FL420. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled by the 16Z update.
Marine
High pressure system far northeast of the state will continue to drift eastward away from the islands today as the surface ridge to the north weakens through early next week. Trade wind speeds will continue to weaken into the weekend, with light to moderate winds forecast over the western islands starting today, then the entire state by Sunday. Eastern islands will remain moderate to locally fresh over the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island but below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday.
Surf heights along north and west facing shores will see a steady rise as a moderate medium to long period swell is expected to build through the day, peak Saturday near High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels before steadily declining through early next week. Wave guidance is indicating the potential for an extra large long-period northwest (320 deg) swell arriving around next Thursday, with the potential for surf well above warning levels in the extra-large to giant range along exposed north and west facing shores. This situation will be closely monitored over the next several days.
Expect small background south swell pulses to continue through the middle of next week. A small, long-period south (200-220 deg) swell with Tasman Sea origins will produce a slight bump in south shore surf today through Sunday.
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