Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated light showers. Lows 58 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated light showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated light showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 53 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated light showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 53 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.

Puna

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated light showers. Lows 58 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 59 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Dry and stable conditions with light winds are expected today, which will allow localized early morning land breezes and daytime sea breezes to form. A brief return of moderate northeast trades along with a weakening frontal boundary moving through the islands will support a few light windward and mauka showers tonight through midweek. As this boundary stalls and diminishes over the eastern end of the state, a similar weakening front will approach the area Thursday through Friday.

Discussion

Guidance remains in decent agreement through the week and shows a progressive pattern continuing over the northern Pacific featuring a series of cold fronts passing north of the area. The tail-end of the first passing front will move through the islands late tonight through midweek, then stall and diminish through the second half over the eastern end of the state. Northerly winds out ahead this approaching boundary will quickly fill in late today, then pick up to moderate levels while shifting out of the northeast tonight through Tuesday. This will be a moisture starved boundary and very shallow due to a suppressed and dry environment in place. The latest upper air profiles at Lihue and Hilo reflect this with strong subsidence inversions positioned around just below 5,000 ft and PWs around and just below an inch. Although these conditions will limit any rainfall chances as this boundary moves through, a slight increase in cloud coverage along with a few light/brief showers favoring northern and windward coasts/slopes will be possible. As this boundary stalls and diminishes over the eastern end of the state, a similar front will approach and move into the area Thursday through Friday. Regardless of this boundary stalling nearby to the north or drifting southward into the area, mostly dry and stable conditions will persist. Extended guidance depicts this progressive trend continuing into the start of the year, with the potential for a third front making it to the islands early next week.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail with the dry and stable conditions in place. Expect localized early morning land breezes and daytime sea breezes today. Northerly winds out ahead of an approaching front will quickly fill in late this afternoon, then pick up to moderate levels while shifting out of the northeast tonight through Tuesday. Although the front will support better cloud coverage and a few light showers for northern through eastern coasts/slopes tonight into Tuesday, VFR conditions should prevail.

Marine

Gentle to fresh trade winds will persist through the week with minor fluctuations is speed and direction as a couple of weak fronts pass over or near the state disrupting the pressure gradient. Winds will be the lightest late Tuesday into Wednesday, then again during the day Friday.
A north-northwest swell (310-330) has fallen below advisory level and thus the High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been cancelled. A reinforcing north-northwest swell (330) will build surf heights back up to advisory level tonight into Tuesday. A HSA will likely be issued in the afternoon.
A series of back-to-back, High Surf Warning (HSW) level north- northwest swells (330-340) will impact the islands this week. The first looks to gradually build in Tuesday and peak Tuesday night into Wednesday. The second north-northwest swell, potentially even larger than the previous, will fill in Thursday and peak Thursday night into Friday. Impacts to coastal properties, low- lying infrastructure including roadways may be impacted during both events as the swell peaks, particularly during the overnight/early morning high tides. Although confidence is low, guidance depicts this trend of progressive swells moving through the islands to continue into the new year.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week due to weaker trades. With the angle of the series of large north- northwest swells impacting the islands and the swells becoming more northerly as the swell sources track east later in the week, exposed areas along east facing shores may see elevated surf through the forecast period. Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny through the first half of the week. A slight bump is possible during the second half of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov