Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 47 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Ridging north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds today, with isolated to scattered showers generally favoring windward and mauka areas. Stronger northeast trade winds are expected to build across the area Tuesday afternoon, and then persist through at least Thursday night. Shower chances will also increase across the islands from west to east Tuesday though Thursday morning before drier air returns statewide by Thursday afternoon. A return to more typical trade wind weather is expected from Friday through the weekend.
Discussion
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. High pressure remains far northeast of the islands with a ridge extending from the high to the northern boundary of the offshore waters. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds have spread across the region as a result. CIMSS MIMIC layer precipitable water (PW) shows precipitable water values have become more uniform across the islands. This correlates well with the overnight soundings which show Lihue at 1.40 inches, and Hilo 1.49 inches of PW. Much drier air is noted further northwest near Kauai closer to the ridge axis.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue today, with showers favoring the windward and mauka areas. Expect drier air to spread over the eastern end of the state later today.
As a front passes north of the islands on Tuesday, moisture will once again increase over and upstream of the islands. Strong post- frontal high pressure will also begin to increase winds to locally strong levels by Tuesday afternoon, and these locally strong winds will persist through at least Thursday night. As the high pressure strengthens north of the state, moisture associated with another front will be pushed down the island chain, increasing shower chances from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
Much drier air will fill in across the state from west to east on Thursday. More typical trade wind weather with moderate to locally breezy trades and showers favoring windward and mauka locations will return from Friday through the weekend.
Aviation
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the next 24 hours, with only a temporary diurnal weakening across the state during the overnight hours. Low clouds and showers will cause windward Big Island to continue to experience MVFR conditions early this morning, with only brief periods of MVFR conditions expected across other windward areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration across windward Big Island remains in effect early this evening. However, drier air has filtered in and allowed conditions to improve slightly, so this AIRMET might be dropped later this morning. Satellite imagery, radar and surface observations show some low clouds and showers beginning to persist over windward Oahu this morning and if this activity becomes more extensive, windward Oahu may need to be included in the AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration.
Marine
A surface ridge sitting nearly 250 nm north of Kauai will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in place for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. Winds should ease slightly and become northeasterly around Kauai this afternoon and evening as a front approaches from the northwest followed closely by a strong high pressure. As the weak front reaches Kauai late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the robust surface high to the northwest will drive increasing northeasterly trade winds and large rough seas. The SCA has been expanded to all waters Tuesday due to strengthening winds and building seas. This SCA may very well be expanded for most waters, if not all, as the high settles north of the area Friday and seas remain elevated. A decrease in trade winds is expected heading into next weekend, but SCA conditions could persist.
Latest near shore buoys show the 340-350 degree north-northwest swell of around 5 ft at 12 seconds has shifted to a more northerly (350-010 degrees) direction at around 4 ft 12 seconds and will continue to slowly decline through today. Since this swell is trending down, the threat of moderate surges in Kahului and Hilo harbors no longer posses a threat thus the Marine Weather Statement has been allowed to expire. Long- period forerunners from the next northwest swell will arrive early Tuesday, and the swell will peak at 9 to 10 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the resulting surf will easily exceed High Surf Advisory levels on north and west facing shores, the peak of the swell will coincide with fresh to near gale northeasterly winds, leading to rough conditions and the potential for high surf along east facing shores due to large wind waves. On Thursday, the swell will shift out of the north- northwest and may be briefly reinforced, keeping surf elevated around advisory levels. The northerly swell is expected to decline late Friday into the weekend.
Small short-period wind waves and small wrapping northerly swell will produce moderate east shore surf through today, followed by a rise to around the advisory level Tuesday and Wednesday as strengthening northeasterly trade winds produce large wind waves. Above average east shore surf and rough conditions can be expected Thursday and Friday due to fresh to near gale trade winds and additional wrapping northerly swell. A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fill in late Monday into Tuesday.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Big Island Windward Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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