Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 66 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.
Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 63 to 69 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 67 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Mostly dry weather will persist for the next day or so, with the exception of a few light showers around Kauai today from a dissipating front. Light and variable winds will continue today, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds returning tonight into early next week. Strong northeast trade winds may develop on Tuesday, with a potential increase in windward showers through Wednesday through the rest of the week.
Discussion
Overnight satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over the majority of the state, with the exception of some lingering high clouds streaming northeastward over the Big Island at the leading edge of an upper trough advancing eastward through the islands. Recent GOES-West CIRA ProxyVis satellite imagery and radar are showing some showery low clouds over the far eastern coastal waters, moving toward windward areas of the Big Island. These showers are likely the leading edge of the trade winds returning. Elsewhere at the surface, a dissipating stationary front is located just northwest of Kauai, resulting in scattered low clouds and a few showers over and around Kauai. The 12Z sounding from Hilo is still quite dry, while precipitable waters is somewhat higher on the Lihue sounding from the proximity of the fading frontal boundary. Due to the presence of the dissipating front near Kauai, a land and sea breeze pattern will prevail through much of today. Moderate trades will return from east to west later this afternoon into early next week as weak ridging rebuilds north of the state.
A progressive mid-latitude pattern will ensure the next front reaches (or nearly reaches) the western portion of the island chain by later in the day Monday before dissipating Monday night. Post-frontal high pressure will then strengthen northwest of the state beneath building ridging aloft prior to moving into the local area. This will bring a period of breezy to locally strong northeast trades from Tuesday through middle portion of next week. During this period, both the GFS and ECMWF show varying degrees of remnant moisture from the former front converging over the state, while also disagreeing on exactly where this moisture sets up and if/how far it progresses down the island chain. For now, the forecast reflects a blend of the two solutions, with a modest increase in mainly windward showers for the middle and latter part of next week.
Aviation
A decaying stationary front near Kauai has increased clouds and showers near the Garden Isle early this morning. Elsewhere, light background winds have allowed land breezes to clear skies over the islands. High clouds that have been streaming over the Big Island for much of the night are now moving southeast away from the state.
Showers and clouds will remain most common near Kauai today as the decaying front stalls and then dissipates. Sea breezes will develop from late morning into the afternoon, increasing cloud cover and perhaps introducing a few showers over island interiors. However, moisture will be limited, so showers will remain mostly isolated from Oahu to the Big Island. VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail across the central and eastern islands today.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for Kauai early this morning, but this AIRMET will likely be dropped later today as the front dissipates and clouds and showers diminish. Additionally, AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence statewide as an upper trough moves over the state. This area of turbulence is quickly moving east, however, so this AIRMET may be dropped later this morning.
Marine
A new, medium-period NW (320 degrees) swell will peak today, with swell heights ranging from 6 to 10 feet along the most exposed N and W facing shores, where a High Surf Advisory (HSA) is posted. The swell will gradually become more northerly (360 degrees) as it slowly diminishes Sunday into Monday. Combined seas will peak over 10 feet in windward waters from Kauai to Maui today, prompting an expansion and extension of the existing Small Craft Advisory (SCA).
A stalling front near Kauai will dissipate today as a weak high passes well N of the islands. A surface ridge near the islands will move N and strengthen in response. Today's (very) light to moderate trade winds will become moderate to locally fresh Sunday, potentially requiring a SCA for typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island. Another front approaching from the NW may lead to a brief weakening of the trade winds on Monday, but high pressure building NW of the islands will support strong to near-gale NE trade winds Tuesday and Wednesday. These increased trade winds will lead to elevated short-period surf along E facing shores.
A powerful low in the NW Pacific is generating a long-period NW (310 degrees) swell that is expected to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday, with peak surf heights approaching High Surf Warning levels along exposed shores. This long-lived swell will become more northerly (360 degrees) later in the week. With the strong trades and large swell, a SCA will likely be required for all waters.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM HST Sunday for north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai and north facing shores of Oahu, Molokai, and Maui.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
