Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 70 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 70 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 72 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
High pressure far north of the state will rapidly move eastward, maintaining breezy trade winds through today. A weak front will approach the state from the northwest Thursday, weakening and veering winds southeasterly. This front will stall near the western end of the state Friday into Saturday, increasing shower chances for Kauai and possibly Oahu. The front will diminish by Sunday. Another front will approach the islands near the end of the forecast period.
Discussion
A surface high pressure about 700 miles due north is producing breezy trades. CIMSS imagery shows a dissipating moisture band near Kauai with drier air further north that will filter in today. Latest satellite and radar imagery show an increase in clouds and showers over windward Big Island and Maui in line with nighttime diurnal pattern. Low level clouds embedded in the trade wind flow upstream will continue to impact mostly windward areas over the next day or so with few showers spilling over to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
As the high tracks northeast of the state and ridge will develop north of the state while a cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken and veer more southeasterly Thursday and Friday. The southeasterly flow will allow showers to focus across the southeastern districts of the Big Island, with the remaining islands located in the rain shadow of Big Island's terrain.
Model guidance shows the front will stall and weaken near the western end of the state from late Friday into Saturday. This has the potential to increase showers across Kauai and possibly Oahu throughout this period, though the most recent deterministic models keep the front near or just north of Kauai. Highest confidence for increased clouds and showers is still for the island of Kauai at this time, but will continue to monitor latest guidance as the event nears and details become more clear.
The front is expected to diminish by Sunday. A brief stable, dry weather pattern will return with light to moderate easterly trade winds from Sunday to Monday. Yet another front, will approach the islands from the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Given that this is still quite far out, there is low confidence on shower trends. Trade winds will likely become breezy to locally strong by the middle of next week as a slightly strong high pressure builds behind the front.
Aviation
Surface high pressure north of the state will bring moderate to locally breezy conditions to the region through the forecast period. Scattered showers will mainly affect windward locations and bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibility, especially on Kauai. Isolated activity expected elsewhere.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai due to the clouds and showers. These conditions are expected to remain in place through this morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through mid day.
Marine
A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaii Region will keep fresh to strong trade winds in the forecast today. The combination of a large north-northwest swell and the locally strong trades will support Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions for all Hawaiian waters through this afternoon. This SCA will then be cancelled for most coastal waters by Thursday due to improving conditions. Winds will weaken and shift out of the southeast or become light and variable from Thursday through Saturday, as a weakening front approaches and moves into the northwest coastal waters.
Buoys continue to report decreasing north-northwest (330-340 degree) swell trends this morning as surf heights along exposed north facing shores will remain at High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels through this afternoon. A HSA remains in effect for most north facing shores today with surf heights along west facing shores falling just below advisory thresholds. The current swell will slowly decrease and completely fall below HSA levels along north facing shores by this evening. Another overlapping medium period north (360 degree) swell will arrive by Thursday, keeping surf heights elevated through Friday. Yet another northwest (320 degree) swell will arrive late Friday, boosting surf heights once again through the weekend. Surf heights for north and west facing shores may reach advisory levels as this swell energy peaks on Saturday.
Surf along east facing shores will become rough and choppy today due to the stronger trades. A downward trend is expected through the second half of the week as the winds diminish. Small surf will continue along south facing shores with only small background swell energy in the forecast.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,
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