Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 58 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with numerous showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 60 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep trade winds blowing through the next 7 days, although they will be somewhat lighter today allowing for some localized land and sea breezes. Pockets of moisture will get caught up in the trades through the period, bringing some showery conditions to windward areas at times and sending a few showers into leeward communities as well.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a ridge of high pressure is positioned around 800 miles northeast of Honolulu, while the weak remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova is moving through the central islands. Farther east, Tropical Depression 12E is located around 1150 miles east-southeast of Hilo. The local gradient is producing light to moderate trade winds this morning, with land breezes present in sheltered leeward areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions across much of the state. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, with some of these showers spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends during the couple days.
The trades are expected to strengthen from east to west across the state today, with moderate to locally breezy conditions expected by late this afternoon as the remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova shifts west of the state. A ridge of high pressure north of the islands should then hold the trades at moderate to locally breezy levels through late next week.
As for the remaining forecast details, expect rather showery conditions over windward areas early this morning as the remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova moves through the islands. A drier airmass is expected to move in from east to west across the state later today, although localized sea breezes may bring a scattered convective showers to leeward areas this afternoon. A fairly typical trade wind pattern is then expected to return from east to west across the state tonight and Sunday, with this pattern then holding through late next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward communities at times as well.

Aviation

A hybrid light to moderate trade wind and sea breeze pattern will continue today. Afternoon sea breezes will develop during the late morning to afternoon hours along more terrain sheltered western slopes. Trade wind speeds will increase from east to west as the trough passes each island. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return for most areas this afternoon to evening. A westward moving low level trough, associated with the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Jova, will increase clouds and showers through the morning hours. Brief showers over island interior sections are possible by afternoon due to the increase in moisture and instability with the passing trough.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration across north through east sections of each island this morning. This AIRMET will likely decrease in coverage later this morning.

Marine

High pressure ridge to the north, and a remnant trough of former Tropical Cyclone Jova moving through the islands will bring increased shower activity to the waters today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued starting at 6 AM HST today through Sunday night for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. SCA conditions are expected to last through the first half of next week as trade winds settle at moderate to locally strong levels.
A small, long period swell is expected to fill in later today, with forerunners expected through the morning hours. The swell energy will peak Sunday, and then slowly decrease into next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain on the small side through the weekend. No significant swells are expected to affect the north and west facing shores through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov