Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 92 near the shore to 68 to 75 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 57 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 92 near the shore to around 72 above 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Locally breezy trade winds are expected to persist this week. A rather typical trade wind weather pattern is also forecast this week, with low clouds and brief trade showers favoring windward and mauka areas, especially during the nights and mornings. Clouds and a few showers will develop over the upslope sections of the leeward Big Island each afternoon, followed by gradual clearing at night.
Discussion
A 1029 mb surface high pressure system remains almost stationary near 37N 166W, or slightly less than 1200 miles north-northwest of Honolulu. The relatively tight pressure gradient south of this feature is producing locally breezy trade winds across the main Hawaiian Islands early this morning. A weak mid-tropospheric ridge is hovering above the state, which is starting to increase atmospheric stability. As a result, the low-level trade wind inversion is gradually becoming better defined, and appears to be 6 to 7 thousand feet according to the balloon soundings made at Hilo and Lihue a few hours ago. Loops of satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data show an area of broken to locally overcast low clouds with embedded scattered trade showers spreading from east to west across the islands. This is producing relatively wet conditions over most windward amd mauka areas, with a few sprinkles over some leeward sections of the smaller islands.
The latest UW-CIMSS MIMIC precipitable water data show that a slightly drier air mass appears to be moving in toward the state from the east. As a result, once the sun begins to warm the atmosphere, expect the coverage of low clouds and showers to gradually decrease from later this morning through this afternoon.
The forecast model guidance indicates the surface high will likely maintain the locally breezy trade winds this week. The guidance also shows the stable atmospheric conditions with a slightly drier trade wind weather pattern will be in place from Tuesday through Friday. Under this regime, expect low clouds and light trade showers to mainly affect windward and mauka areas, especially during the nighttime and early morning hours. In addition, this will result in a typical pattern of clouds and a few showers developing over the upslope sections of the leeward Big Island each afternoon, followed by gradual clearing each night.
Aviation
High pressure north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds for the next several days. Surface observations and VAD profiles continue to show marginal winds to support low-level turbulence. However, with winds expected to increase later today will keep AIRMET Tango for mountain lee turbulence posted.
Satellite imagery continues to show a wave of moisture moving into windward Big Island and across Kauai and Oahu so AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for these areas. Expect these conditions to persist through the morning hours, with drier air expected to move across the islands this afternoon. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions as clouds and showers favor windward and mauka areas. Brief periods of MVFR will be possible under passing showers.
Marine
Surface high pressure centered far north northwest of the islands is producing a tight pressure gradient down across the state. This will allow trades to slightly strengthen from recently moderate magnitudes to more fresh speeds through the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windier waters around Maui County and Big Island will be in effect through late Tuesday night. The SCA will likely be extended through the remainder of the week.
No significant swells are expected over the several days. Thus, very small surf heights are forecast this week. A small, long period south swell today should provide a minor bump in south- facing surf heights through mid week. East-facing shore surf driven by trade wind wave energy will remain small and choppy.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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