Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
High pressure north of the islands will keep breezy trade winds blowing through the weekend. Rather dry trade wind weather will prevail with light showers favoring windward and mauka areas mainly during nights and mornings and a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time. The remnants of former tropical cyclone Adrian could ease the trades and increase shower coverage and intensity Monday and Tuesday. Moderate to locally breezy trades and drier trade wind weather should return late Wednesday through the end of the work week.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, and is driving moderate trade winds in unsheltered portions of the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows variable cloud cover across the state, with coverage generally the highest over windward areas. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with some of these showers spilling over into leeward communities. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next several days.
High pressure north of the islands will settle southward and closer to the islands during the next few days, strengthening the pressure gradient across the state. Moderate trades early this morning will strengthen to breezy levels across the entire area this afternoon into Sunday. The ridge north of the islands will weaken late Sunday through early next week as the remnants of former tropical cyclone Adrian approach and move through the area. This should ease trades back to moderate levels across the islands. Once the remnants of Adrian shift west of the state late next week, we should see a return to moderate to locally breezy trade winds.
As for the remaining weather details, strong mid-level ridging and below normal precipitable water values should keep shower activity light and focused primarily over windward and mauka areas through the weekend. Showers will be most prevalent during nights and mornings, with a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time. We could see an increase in trade wind shower coverage and intensity as the remnant moisture from former tropical cyclone Adrian moves through Monday and Tuesday, with more of these showers reaching leeward communities as well. Things appear to dry out pretty good following the passage of the remnants of Adrian, with drier than normal trade wind weather expected late Wednesday through the end of the work week.
Aviation
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through twenty-four hours and beyond. AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence over and downstream of higher terrain remains in effect. Trade wind showers will favor windward slopes and coasts and be most active in the late night and morning hours. Convective showers are expected over the lower slopes of leeward Big Island in the afternoon and early evening hours. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely in showers, but VFR conditions will predominate all areas.
Marine
A high pressure ridge will remain far north of Hawaii, producing moderate to locally strong trade winds over and upstream of the islands lasting into early next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was extended in time through Saturday night and expanded in coverage to include windier waters and channels across the state. This SCA will likely continue into the first half of next week.
Surf along all shores will remain small today. Two small medium to long period swells arriving from the south-southwest (190-210) and south-southeast (150) will build surf heights along south facing shores this weekend, with surf heights peaking on Sunday. Western shores will also benefit from a wrap of the slightly bigger south-southwest swell. Small south swell pulses will continue to boost surf heights into the middle of next week.
North facing shores will also see a boost in surf from a small medium period (330-350 degree) north-northwest swell arriving tonight. This swell energy will peak on Saturday and then diminish through the first half of next week. East facing shores will continue to see small choppy surf into the middle of next week from a moderate to strong trade wind fetch.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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