Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Windy. Mostly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Trade winds will remain at breezy to locally windy levels through early next week, peaking over the weekend. The trades may ease slightly around the middle of next week. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected during the next 7 days, with bands of clouds and showers moving through the islands at times, although we should see a bit drier weather this weekend. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers occasionally reaching leeward communities due to the strength of the trades.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 900 miles north of Honolulu, and is driving breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions in windward and mauka areas, with partly cloudy skies in most leeward locales. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with quite a few of these showers reaching leeward communities as well. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure north-northeast of the islands will settle southward and closer to the state during the next couple days, strengthening the pressure gradient across the island chain. The trade winds will remain at breezy through Tuesday, and are expected to peak at locally windy levels over the weekend as a drier more stable airmass builds in and lowers inversion heights to around 5-6 kft. This should allow the terrain to be particularly effective at accelerating the winds through the islands, and a Wind Advisory may eventually be required during this time for portions of the state. The trades may ease back to moderate to locally breezy levels around the middle of next week as the high to the distant north weakens slightly.
As for the remaining weather details, typical trade wind weather is expected to continue during the next 7 days, with the exception of this weekend when a drier more stable airmass should reduce shower coverage statewide. Overall, bands of clouds and showers will periodically move through the islands throughout the forecast period, with showers favoring windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours. A few showers will reach leeward areas at times as well due to the strength of the trades.
Aviation
Breezy to locally strong ENE trade winds will remain in place. The trades will deliver randomly distributed showery low clouds, especially to windward and mountain areas, with more robust showers favoring the night time and early morning hours. Although VFR conditions will generally prevail, periods of MVFR VIS/CIG will occur over windward areas this morning. Some showers will briefly spread leeward, but will not linger very long as they will continue to move at speeds near 25 kt. As a result, AIRMET Tango will remain posted for low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve by late morning.
Marine
Small Craft Advisory level easterly trade winds (20-30 kt) are expected to continue through early next week, which will translate to rough conditions. Seas will respond across the exposed waters and reach the 8 to 12 ft range this weekend due to a combination of a solid long-period south-southeast swell arriving and the short-period wind generated seas out of the east.
Surf along south facing shores will begin to rise tonight through Saturday as this large long-period south-southeast swell begins to fill in. Observations at the American Samoa PacIoos buoy reflected this source over the past few days, where the swell peaked well above the predicted levels Wednesday. These observations combined with satellite estimates across the generation region south of Tahiti support the first phase of this event peaking for Hawaii Saturday night through Sunday night, likely driving surf heights to the advisory level of 10 ft (faces). This will be a long-lived event with surf hovering well above average through the first half of next week as a second long-period pulse arrives Monday. Surf will return to the summertime average late next week with the typical background southerly energy moving through.
Surf along east facing shores will trend up and remain rough through early next week due to the strong trades.
Surf along north and west facing shores will remain near the summertime average through Saturday, then slightly rise Sunday into next week as a small northwest swell arrives.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters,
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