Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The presence of weak ridging to the north will keep light to moderate trades in place through mid week, with localized land and sea breezes expected in the more sheltered areas. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts during nights and mornings, and interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A return to more typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward showers and a few leeward spillovers is expected late Thursday through the weekend, with trades possibly reaching breezy levels from Friday onward.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a weak nearly stationary front is located around 450 miles north of Kauai, while a weak surface ridge is positioned around 225 miles north of Honolulu. The resulting gradient is producing light to moderate trade winds, with land breezes present in sheltered areas. Infrared satellite imagery shows some high clouds streaming over the Big Island and some low clouds being carried into windward areas with the trades. Overall, partly cloudy conditions prevail, with a few windward sections of the smaller islands and portions of the Big Islands experiencing more extensive cloud cover. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in leeward locales. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
A weak ridge of high pressure north of the islands will remain nearly stationary through mid week, keeping the gradient loose and trade winds in the light to moderate range. The trades will be light enough to allow for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes in many leeward areas and even some windward sections over the western end of the state. The ridge will strengthen and lift northward Thursday, with breezy trades possible Friday through the weekend.
As for the remaining details, a fairly stagnant weather pattern can be expected through Thursday, with showers favoring windward areas during nights and mornings, then transitioning over to interior and leeward areas each afternoon and early evening. A return to more typical trade wind weather featuring windward showers and the occasional leeward spillover is expected late Thursday through the weekend.
Periods of scattered to broken high cloud cover will continue to mainly affect the eastern end of the state today through Tuesday. The high clouds should mostly dissipate Wednesday and Thursday, with some more high clouds possible at times Friday through the weekend.
Aviation
A frontal system moving north of the state will keep surface high pressure weak and allow for light trades to persist across the islands through the forecast period. Thus, scattered showers will mainly affect windward areas this morning and may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility.
By this afternoon, sea breeze development along the leeward coasts will lead to scattered shower development over the interiors and along leeward locations. Partly cloudy elsewhere with VFR conditions.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Marine
Light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through midweek as a weakness in the ridge to the north lingers. Despite the lighter winds, expect localized pockets of fresh breezes near the coasts and over the windier locations, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours due to a combination of the orientation of the terrain, wind direction, and heating. Guidance shows a return of fresh to strong easterly trades by the end of the week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up through midweek as a mix of background long-period south-southwest and south- southeast swells continues. As these sources fade by Thursday, another small background south-southwest swell is expected Friday into next weekend.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will remain near the seasonal average each day through the first half of the week. An out of season west-northwest swell is expected to arrive late Wednesday through Wednesday night, peak Thursday, then ease into the weekend. Recent satellite-derived winds and seas reflected this potential and showed a nice sized fetch of strong- to gale- force westerly winds focused at the islands down the 310 degree directional band with seas up around 25 ft over the far northwest corner of the basin near Kamchatka.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week due to the light trades locally and far upstream over the eastern Pacific. An upward trend is possible next weekend as the trades return to fresh levels.
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