Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
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Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The presence of weak ridging to the north will keep light to moderate trades in place, with localized land and sea breezes expected in the more sheltered areas through the middle of next week. Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts at night and interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A return to more typical trade wind weather featuring mainly windward showers and a few leeward spillovers is expected Thursday through next weekend, with trades possibly strengthening to moderate and breezy levels from Friday onward.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a weak cold front is located around 500 miles north of Kauai, while a weak surface ridge is positioned around 250 miles north of Honolulu. The resulting gradient is producing light to locally moderate trade winds, strongest over the eastern end of the state, with land breezes present on Kauai and in leeward sections of the other islands. Infrared satellite imagery shows considerable high cloud cover resulting in mostly cloudy conditions over Oahu and Maui County, while partly cloudy skies prevail over Kauai and the Big Island. Radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, along with a few showers drifting leeward on Oahu. Elsewhere, mostly dry conditions prevail. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and trade wind trends.
A series of weak fronts several hundred miles north of the state will shift east-southeast during the next couple days, weakening the ridge and displacing it southward and closer to the state. The trades will remain light to locally moderate through Monday, with overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes expected in many leeward areas and even some windward sections over the western end of the state. The ridge to the north will strengthen slightly and lift northward Monday night and Tuesday, then hold steady through Wednesday. This should give trades a slight boost back to mostly moderate levels, although the gradient will likely remain loose enough to allow for localized sea and land breezes in the more sheltered leeward areas. The ridge will strengthen and lift northward Thursday, with trades possibly reaching moderate to breezy levels Friday through next weekend.
As for the remaining weather details, scattered morning showers mainly affecting windward areas should diminish and transition over to leeward areas this afternoon. Not much change in the forecast is then expected tonight through Wednesday, with showers favoring windward areas at night and interior and leeward areas each afternoon, although a bit higher shower coverage is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as some deeper moisture moves in from the east. A return to more typical trade wind weather featuring windward showers and the occasional leeward spillover is expected Thursday through next weekend.
Periods of scattered to broken high cloud cover will continue to move overhead at times. The latest model guidance shows the high clouds thinning out today, then thickening up again tonight but refocusing over the eastern half of the state. Most of the high clouds should mostly dissipate Wednesday and Thursday, with some more high clouds possible at times Friday through next weekend.
Aviation
Gentle to locally moderate trade winds will continue for the remainder of the weekend. This pattern will maintain showers across windward areas. Light background winds will also allow for afternoon sea breeze clouds, along with an isolated shower, across sheltered leeward areas this afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through tonight, however brief MVFR conditions will continue this morning across some windward locations in heavier showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence statewide between FL250 and FL350 due to upper level jet dynamics over the islands. The jet will linger around the state today, maintaining high clouds over the area.
Marine
Light to moderate easterly trade winds will continue through midweek as a weakness in the ridge to the north lingers. Despite the lighter winds, expect localized pockets of fresh breezes to develop near the coasts and over the windier locations, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours due to a combination of the orientation of the terrain, wind direction, and heating. Guidance shows a return of fresh to strong easterly trades by the end of the week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week with mainly a mix of background long-period south-southwest and south-southeast swells rolling through. As these sources fade by Thursday, another small background south-southwest swell is expected by Friday into next weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will remain near the seasonal average each day through the first half of the week. Although guidance does show a decent out of season northwest swell arriving late Wednesday, confidence is low at this point due to the source quickly lifting north-northeast over the far northwest Pacific later today through tonight.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the week due to the light trades locally and far upstream over the eastern Pacific.
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