Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kohala
Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light to moderate trade winds will become quite light over the weekend and early next week, with a mostly dry pattern developing. The light trade winds will deliver limited clouds and showers to windward areas, mainly during nights and mornings. Sea breezes will promote afternoon cloud development over leeward areas, also delivering just a few showers. Periods of high clouds will continue on and off through the weekend.
Discussion
Mid- and high-level clouds of varying thicknessES are over the islands this morning, moving rapidly ENE within the subtropical jet. The jet lies on the S side of an ENE-WSW oriented nearly stationary trough aloft that has an axis just N of the islands along ~25N. A low within the trough brought strong winds to the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa yesterday, but winds have diminished below Wind Advisory speeds. This trough continues to destabilize the island atmosphere, with morning soundings showing a somewhat moist and unstable profile. Light to moderate trade winds at the surface are being supported by a weakening ridge well N of the islands, with clusters of showery low clouds randomly embedded. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers around Kauai and Oahu (where showers have been most active overnight), with some small heavy cores noted. Fewer showers are noted over Maui County and the Big Island. Satellite shows very little in the way of low clouds immediately upstream of the islands.
Although showers have been fairly active in portions of the state the last couple of days, a drier air mass will bring lower PWAT values from later today into the weekend. Meanwhile, a pair of low pressure systems passing N of the islands over the next several days will weaken the trade-wind-supporting ridge, while also pushing it closer to the islands. Trade winds will weaken in response, becoming quite light on Sunday and Monday.
With the light trades and drier air mass, windward areas will see limited showers after this morning, mainly during nights and mornings. Nighttime land breezes over leeward areas will lead to mostly clear nights and mornings, giving way to onshore-flowing sea breezes in the afternoons that will fuel clouds and a few showers that will linger until sunset. Models have been trending toward a lighter wind solution for early next week, with the return of breezy trades likely delayed until midweek.
The semi-permanent trough aloft is not expected to move much over the next several days, but an embedded low will move E away from the islands today, leading to some short term stabilization of the island atmosphere. Additionally, high clouds are expected to remain fairly this over most of the state today. A new low will move the trough tonight and Saturday, potentially bringing another bout of high clouds and increased instability, although diminished PWAT and winds may prevent an increase in showers. Another shortwave moving through the trough is expected on Monday, likely with similar effects.
Aviation
A typical June tradewind pattern will persist through the forecast period thanks to a surface high far northeast of the state. Moderate trades, along with slightly enhanced low level moisture, will bring scattered to numerous showers to windward locations through this morning. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may accompany this activity. A drier airmass will advect into the region by this afternoon and lead to decreasing shower coverage.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east section of Oahu and Kauai for tempo mountain obscuration. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate upper level turbulence statewide.
Marine
Moderate to fresh trades will hold in place today, then gradually ease into the light to moderate range this weekend as the ridge north of the state weakens. The trades will strengthen back into the moderate to fresh range early next week as the ridge lifts back northward.
North shore surf will remain flat through early next week with only background northwest swell energy moving through. A new northwest swell is expected to build Wednesday, peak at moderate levels Thursday, then begin a slow decline Friday. This will give a nice, sizable, out-of-season boost to north and west shore surf late next week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain relatively steady below the seasonal average through the weekend. A slightly larger south swell is expected to arrive Sunday night, boosting south shore surf up close to seasonal levels Monday through Wednesday, with mainly background south swell energy then expected for the end of next week.
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