Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 68 to 74 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 50 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A high pressure system will remain north of the Hawaiian Islands producing an extended period of light to locally breezy trade winds through the end of next week. A land and sea breeze weather pattern will develop over each island as the trade winds weaken from today through Sunday. A narrow upper level trough with embedded lows just north of the islands will produce brief periods of showers over the next several days.
Discussion
The large scale weather picture remains the same with a subtropical ridge locked in place north of the Hawaiian Islands through the end of next week. Global model and satellite water vapor imagery also show a narrow upper level trough, also known as the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), extending from west to east just north of the state. A few unstable lows are embedded within this upper level trough will briefly decrease trade wind strength through Sunday and enhance local shower activity at times over the next seven days. These upper lows will also produce brief periods of high level cirrus clouds that will enhance sunrise and sunset colors across the state.
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will decrease into the light to moderate range today through Sunday as upper level lows produce a low level trough near the islands and weaken the trade winds. Decreasing large scale trade winds will allow local island scale land and sea breezes to develop especially along western sides of each island. Day time island heating will cause sea breeze winds to develop a few hours after sunrise. Trade wind speeds will increase to moderate levels on Monday and becoming moderate to locally breezy winds by Wednesday and Thursday.
The upper level trough and embedded lows will produce some instability over the islands keeping the trade wind temperature inversion in the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range for most of the next seven days. This inversion will tend to cap cloud tops in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range allowing periods of showers to develop across the region. Sea breezes will converge with light background trade winds and surface heating will build clouds over island mountain and interior sections from morning to afternoon. Building clouds over the islands will produce brief showers favoring the afternoon to early evening hours through Sunday. Windward areas may also see some enhanced showers mainly in the overnight to early morning hours. The pattern slowly shifts back to more typical trade wind weather by Tuesday, with brief showers favoring the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
Aviation
Surface high pressure north of the state will allow moderate trades to persist through the remainder of this morning and into the afternoon. Some moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will bring scattered showers to mainly windward locations through the forecast period. There may be brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility associated with this activity.
Sea breeze development could affect areas along the leeward coasts by early this afternoon.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 9000 ft over and immediately south through west of mountains.
Marine
Upper level troughing forming north and east of the state will push a weak surface trough across the islands this weekend. This will subtly weaken trades to more gentle and locally moderate speeds. The north-to-south pressure gradient created by a surface high north of the area early next week will maintain moderate east trades through the remainder of the month.
Small, medium period south to southwest swells (180-230 degree) will keep south-facing shore surf heights near or slightly under summer averages (around 5 feet) through Saturday. Surf will drop slightly late Saturday, but will likely increase by Sunday afternoon with the next small, yet slightly higher period south southwest (200-220 degree) swell arrival. Latest American Samoa buoy observations suggest that this early week swell will come in around 3 feet and produce near to slightly above summertime average south surf Sunday into early Monday. East chop will steadily decrease later today and through the weekend in response to weakening trades. North-facing shores will experience nearly flat conditions into Sunday. A small, long period west northwest (300 degree) swell Sunday into Sunday night will produce a slight bump in north and west-facing shore surf through Tuesday.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
