Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 61 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 62 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 56 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to 61 to 68 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 62 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 69 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light to moderate trades will focus showers over windward zones. Interior showers may develop over sheltered and leeward areas this afternoon. Expect bouts of heavy rainfall over Kauai and possibly Oahu Thursday through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Moderate trade flow will return from Sunday onward.
Discussion
Low pressure far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to put a big dent in the subtropical ridge which normally drives trade wind flow across the islands. The result is weaker flow like what we saw overnight. Light to moderate trades will allow development of a hybrid land and sea breeze pattern today and tonight. Aloft, the subtropical jet is pushing an area of thick high clouds across the Big Island and the islands of Maui County this morning. Broken to overcast low clouds linger across mauka sections of Kauai and Oahu, with the view of low clouds obscured by thick high clouds farther to the east.
Models show an upper trough northwest of the islands will dig southeastward over the next few days, developing into an upper low which will move across Kauai late Friday before filling. Light to moderate southeasterly flow and weak surface troughing beneath the upper low will enhance rainfall across the western islands Thursday through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu Thursday through Friday.
By Sunday, a rapidly weakening upper low will have moved east of the islands and surface ridging will have rebounded with the lifting of low pressure northeast of the islands farther northward. Moderate trade flow will build westward across the islands from Sunday into next week. Weak ridging aloft will stabilize our airmass, limiting total rainfall from Sunday onward.
Aviation
Light to moderate easterly trades will continue, with clouds and showers favoring the typical windward and mauka locations. The exception will be over sheltered leeward locations where sea breezes develop this afternoon. Expect brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in and around showers, and AIRMET Sierra can't be ruled out through the early morning hours for N thru E sections of each island.
Marine
Gentle to locally fresh trade winds are being driven by a surface ridge 200 nm northeast of the state. Winds will begin to veer southeasterly tonight as the ridge erodes and a surface trough develops several hundred miles west of Kauai. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail late tonight through Friday and bring chances for thunderstorms, mainly around Kauai and Oahu. The surface trough will dissipate on Saturday, leading to a return of the trade winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions around the Big Island and Maui.
A small, medium-period north swell will decline through today, followed by a small, short-period reinforcing swell late tonight and Thursday. Some of this swell will wrap into exposed eastern shores, but otherwise, east shore surf will be below May average as the nearby trade wind flow will be weaker than normal into Saturday. A small northwest swell is possible early next week, while returning trade winds will increase east shore surf.
Generally background swell from the southwest and southeast will maintain surf below May average through the next few days. Little source for southerly swell is seen beyond the weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Kauai Mountains, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Central Oahu, Waianae Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plain, Koolau Windward, Koolau Leeward.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.
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