Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A weakening upper low near Kauai will keep wet easterly trade winds in the forecast into Wednesday morning with locally heavy showers possible and isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the Big Island. Expect shower coverage to slowly decrease through the day with typical trade wind weather expected from Wednesday into Friday. Increasing shower trends return by this weekend as another weak upper low forms just north of the state. Easterly trade winds will continue to blow across the region through much of next week.
Discussion
Shower activity has trended upward across the Hawaii region this morning as shown on the latest local radar and satellite imagery. These trends follow the typical diurnal cycle of peak rainfall amounts during the early morning hours under the unstable influence of an upper level low near Kauai.
In the short term, this upper low will continue to enhance trade wind shower activity with decreasing chances for heavy showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will linger mainly over Kauai through tonight, and over the Big Island slopes in the afternoon hours.
A weak high pressure ridge will build over the island chain from Wednesday into Friday. This ridge aloft will produce stronger subsidence (downward moving air), and strengthen (lower) the trade wind temperature inversion heights into the 5,000 to 7,000 foot range across the region. Brief trade wind showers will favor windward and mountain areas mainly during the overnight to early morning hours.
The longer range forecast continues to show subtle changes towards increasing shower trends from Friday night through this weekend as a weak upper low/trough forms just north of the state. How much shower activity will highly depend upon the strength of this upper level feature. Confidence is only moderate that increasing shower trends will be noticeable in our island trade wind weather pattern. Additional opportunities remain for periods of enhanced showers in next week's weather forecast picture. Stay tuned.
Aviation
High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate to breezy trade winds in place during the next 24 hours. The airmass will remain unstable due to troughing aloft, resulting in a more showery trade wind pattern, particularly for windward areas. A thunderstorm or two could pop on the Big Island slopes this afternoon as well. A more stable and drier airmass should begin to build into the islands tonight.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through much of the morning. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate upper level turbulence over the eastern half of the state. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect today. AIRMET Tango may also be needed for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain beginning late today or tonight.
Marine
Trade winds have returned due to high pressure building far northeast of the state, and should hold through the week. Small Craft Advisory level winds (25 kt) will persist over the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The advisory may need to be expanded to Kaiwi Channel waters tonight into Wednesday. Winds may lower slightly by this weekend as the ridge settles southward and weakens.
Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise today due to the trades that have returned locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. Guidance shows this holding into the second half of the week before easing next weekend as the trades upstream trend down.
The quiet conditions across the northern Pacific continues through the first week of April, with minimal swell anticipated. This will translate to the nearly flat conditions continuing for north and west facing shores. The exception will be for north facing shores exposed to trade wind energy wrapping in, which could generate some small surf for the typical standout locations this week. For the extended, there is a potential for a short/medium period northerly swell associated with a decent sized area of north-northwest winds setting up and expanding southward from the Aleutians around the Date Line Friday through Saturday. If this materializes, this swell would arrive locally early next week and linger through midweek.
For south facing shores, guidance supports the small conditions continuing well into April with mainly background energy moving through.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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