Today: Cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 67 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light winds and humid conditions will prevail today. The light winds will allow afternoon sea breezes to drive the formation of a few showers, some briefly heavy, over the islands this afternoon. Light to moderate trade winds will bring increasingly settled weather tonight into Saturday, with just a few windward showers expected. Winds will veer to the southeast Sunday and Monday, but a mostly dry weather regime will continue. A front is expected to move over the islands Tuesday into Thursday, bringing the potential for southerly winds and increased showers that may persist for several days.
Discussion
Early morning regional satellite imagery shows overcast mid- and high-level clouds over the Big Island, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies over the remainder of the islands. Strong thunderstorm clusters that were over Hawaiian Offshore waters N and SW of the islands yesterday evening have all but diminished, with a small cell persisting about 175 miles SW of South Point. Radar shows a few showers over near shore waters SW and W of Maui and the Big Island, with light returns associated with the cloud deck over the Big Island. Otherwise, a mostly dry night/morning is ongoing, although a thunderstorm briefly dropped heavy rain over parts of leeward Kohala overnight. Overnight sounding data shows a strengthened subsidence inversion at PHTO based near 5000', while the PHLI sounding showed a strong ground-based inversion due to radiational cooling, but an otherwise somewhat unstable profile. Water vapor imagery continues to highlight cyclonic flow aloft over the area, associated with a trough axis near Kauai that extends well N of the islands.
A weakening surface low about 700 miles N of Oahu had an associated surface trough that extended toward the island chain, but it has dissipated overnight. Light and variable winds persist over most areas, except for light E to SE winds near the Big Island. Trade winds will strengthen from E to W across the chain as a ridge near the islands moves N and strengthens, supported by a strong high centered to the distant NW. However, light winds are expected to persist today. A mostly dry morning will feature some lingering high clouds near the Big Island, with developing sea breezes bringing the potential for cloud and shower formation over island interiors in the afternoon. Lingering moisture and instability will bring the potential for some briefly heavy showers.
Light to moderate trade winds are expected to be strongest on Saturday as the ridge strengthens. On Sunday and Monday, another low and front (now near the Date Line) will slowly approach from the NW, forcing the ridge to move close to Kauai – leading to gradually weakening and veering SE winds that may allow localized land and sea breezes to develop. Weak mid-level ridging is expected to limit shower coverage this weekend as PWAT diminishes and a subsidence inversion strengthens, with windward slopes the most likely recipient of a few brief showers.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, latest guidance indicates the front will move over the islands, bringing the potential for southerly winds and increased shower coverage/intensity. The potential exists for another cut-off low to develop NW of the islands thereafter, which would keep a shower-supporting front and/or a convergence boundary in the vicinity of the islands into the following weekend.
Aviation
A cold front north of the state will continue to generate shower and thunderstorm activity far north of the islands. Isolated showers still remain possible further south, over the forecast area, though not expecting anything widespread.
With light flow in place, land breezes should persist through early this morning. Sea breeze development early this afternoon will likely lead to showers over the islands interior and higher terrain.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect.
Marine
Surface ridging will build north of the state today and tonight, allowing trade winds to return from east to west across the island chain. The trades will reach moderate levels across the entire marine area by daybreak Saturday, then become locally strong over the weekend as the ridge lifts a bit further north. The windier zones around Maui and the Big Island will likely reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds during this time. The trades will be on the decrease by Sunday night as a front approaches from the west, with light to moderate southeasterly winds, strongest over the eastern islands, expected for the first half of next week.
A mix of small, medium period northwest swells will keep some small surf rolling into north and west facing shores through Saturday. A small longer period northwest swell will build on Sunday, giving a more noticeable boost to north shore surf Sunday night and Monday. This swell will then lower Tuesday with only small surf expected Wednesday. A new medium period northwest swell could give a slight boost to north and west shore surf late next week.
Surf along east facing shores will hold steady today and tonight, with a slight boost expected over the weekend as trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands. East shore surf will then change little through the middle of next week, remaining at below normal levels. A long period northeast swell could give east shore surf a more noticeable boost late next week.
Only background south swell energy is expected through late next week.
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