Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming north up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Waimea
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 71 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 50 to 56 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 69 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A stationary front remains just northwest of Kauai with a high pressure ridge over the islands. This stable weather pattern will keep light southwesterly winds with land and sea breezes along terrain sheltered slopes for most islands through this weekend. An upper level trough will move over this front on Sunday, causing a weak cut off low to form by Monday just west of Kauai. Enough instability from this upper trough will increase shower chances over Kauai from Sunday into Monday. Long range guidance shows southerly winds aloft over Kauai County and Oahu with increasing shower activity from Monday through Wednesday.
Discussion
A stationary front remains just northwest of Kauai with a high pressure ridge locked in place over the Hawaiian Islands. This high pressure ridge over the islands will produce stable conditions in place for the short range weather forecast with temperature inversion heights in the 4,000 to 6,000 foot range limiting vertical cloud development. Surface observations and radar imagery this morning continues to show weak southwesterly flow over the state with no significant rainfall activity. Satellite imagery shows very little cloud cover from the Big Island to Molokai, with some high to mid cloud cover passing over Oahu and Kauai.
The high pressure ridge over the state will linger into Saturday keeping weather conditions over the islands fairly dry. Expect light southwesterly winds with afternoon sea breezes along terrain sheltered north and east sections of each islands and light offshore land breezes at night. Periods of high level cirrus clouds are forecast to drift over the western islands through the weekend, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
A strong upper level trough will approach the Hawaii region from the northwest from Sunday into Monday, divergence ahead of this upper trough will cause a surface low to form along the stationary front. Cold air aloft will become cut off from the mid latitude westerly flow and form a stationary cut off low about 500 miles northwest of Kauai. The surface low will deepen and move northwest under the upper level system from Monday through Wednesday. Southeast winds at the surface with south winds aloft may develop over Kauai and Oahu during this transition with inversion heights in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range. Enough moisture and instability will keep passing showers in the forecast for these western islands from Monday through Wednesday. Drier conditions are expected over the islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties in more stable east to southeasterly winds.
Long range forecast guidance diverges significantly over the Hawaii region between the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models due to challenges in forecasting smaller scale convergence bands around the developing cut off low. The GFS remains on the wetter side of the forecast spreading periods of showers to all islands with the ECMWF keeping drier more stable conditions over Maui and Hawaii Counties. The weather forecast from Wednesday onward will certainly evolve over time as the location of the cut off low center and the small mesoscale convergence cloud bands forming around the low will be key players in our island by island rainfall activity. Stay tuned.
Aviation
Early this morning, low clouds and showers associated with a frontal boundary continue to stream just north of Kauai. Although the bulk of the showers and low clouds remain to the north, Kauai may be brushed with quick moving showers and low clouds from time to time through the morning hours before the band meanders even further north away from the island by the afternoon.
Elsewhere across the state, light southerly winds and mostly dry conditions are expected with a surface ridge axis near the Big Island. Any showers will remain both minimal in coverage and light in intensity.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect, and none are anticipated at this time.
Marine
A ridge will continue to meander over and south of the islands through the rest of the week as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary north of the area. This pattern will support periods of gentle to moderate south to southwest winds for the western half of the state, and light to moderate south to southeast winds throught the weekend. By next week Monday winds will have backed out of the east in moderate to fresh range as a more progressive systems develops northwest of the state.
Seas and surf will remain on the small side for all Hawaiian waters and shores as minimal swell energy expected through the rest of this week and into the weekend. The next notable short- to medium- period north swell is expected to arrive late this weekend. This swell will provide a boost in north facing shore surf and could build the seas to the 10 ft advisory level if it materializes early next week. South shores surf may see a boost in surf next week Tuesday through midweek.
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