Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
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Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Puna
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Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.
Friday: Sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
The remnant moisture associated with an old front will keep some some showers rolling into windward portions of the central islands this morning, with drier conditions prevailing elsewhere. Shower coverage will diminish considerably this afternoon, although lingering moisture will keep a slight chance for showers along windward sections of the eastern islands through Friday morning. Very dry and stable weather will overspread the entire state Friday afternoon and hold in place through Tuesday, with very little if any rain expected. A front could bring an increase in showers to Kauai and Oahu next Wednesday. Light to moderate trade winds will generally prevail through much of the forecast period.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a weak ridge of high pressure is positioned around 200 miles north of Honolulu, while the front that was over the central islands has dissipated. Light to moderate trade winds continue to prevail across the state early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage highest in windward areas from Oahu eastward. Radar imagery shows scattered showers affecting windward sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, with rain free conditions over Kauai and Lanai. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances.
The remnant moisture associated with the old front will gradually disperse today as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west. Scattered showers will continue early this morning over windward sections of Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, with perhaps a shower or two reaching leeward communities, with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere. We should see a marked decrease in shower coverage statewide this afternoon, as inversion heights drop below 5,000 feet statewide. Some lingering moisture will likely keep a few showers showers rolling into windward sections of the eastern islands tonight and Friday morning, with very little shower activity then expected statewide by Friday afternoon as precipitable water values drop into the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range.
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected Friday night through Wednesday, with precipitable water values holding below an inch and inversion heights remaining below 5,000 feet. As a result, very little if any rainfall is expected during this time. A weakening front could potentially bring an increase in showers to Kauai and Oahu around the middle of next week.
Light to moderate trade winds will generally prevail through Monday, with only minor variations in strength from day to day. Light and variable winds appear possible on Tuesday in advance of a weakening front, with perhaps a return of light to moderate trade winds for Wednesday.
Aviation
The areal coverage of showers has diminished this morning, with the most persistent showers focused across windward areas of the central smaller islands and Big Island. Drier and more stable conditions pushing over Kauai this morning, will spread eastward into the state this afternoon which will further limit showers across the islands. Widespread MVFR conditions seen earlier, have also decreased. However some MVFR conditions, in heavier showers, will continue the potential need of AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration across some windward locations this morning.
Otherwise, light to moderate northeasterly trade winds continue across the islands today. This relatively light wind pattern will promote diurnal land sea breeze circulations across some leeward areas during the TAF period.
Marine
Gentle to moderate northeast trades will hold today before veering easterly and strengthening to moderate to fresh Friday through the weekend as surface high pressure reestablishes just north of the island chain. A front will approach the state early next week, prompting winds to weaken and veer out of the south before more northerly winds fill in behind the front. A high will build north of the state behind the front and track east, allowing moderate to fresh trades to return by mid week next week.
Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily ease through Friday as overlapping short- period northwest (330 degrees) and north (350 degrees) swells moves through. The north swell will transition to more north- northeast (20-30 degrees) today into the weekend. Surf along north and west facing shores will steadily increase as early as late Friday into early next week as consecutive northwest (320-330 degrees) swells move through the island chain, each a little bigger than the previous. These swells could bring above average surf to north and west facing shores late in the weekend into early next week before slowly trending down.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small, except for shores exposed to the north and northeast swell mentioned above. East shores may see an additional slight bump as trades strengthen slightly Friday into the weekend. The small surf along south facing shores will see another little bump over the next day or two keeping surf slightly elevated into the weekend.
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