Today: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 61 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 69 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.
Monday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly sunny with chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 64 to 72 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 52 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.
Monday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will will hold around the Big Island for the next couple of days, while a nearby surface ridge produces lighter and at times variable winds across the rest of the state. Very stable and rather dry conditions will continue. Stronger trade winds are due during the middle of next week, possibly pushing a dissipating front over the islands that could increase mainly windward rainfall.
Discussion
Dry, stable, and somewhat stagnant conditions prevail over most the state to start the new year. A surface ridge stalled about 125 miles north of Kauai is maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds around the Big Island and east Maui, and weaker east to southeast winds across the rest of the state have been overpowered by light land breezes. A robust ridge aloft overhead is producing very stable conditions with an inversion based between 4,500 and 5,500 ft, and low level moisture is limited. As a result, most areas have been dry overnight, while a few light showers have been observed over windward Big Island.
Little change is due for the rest of the holiday weekend. Best chances for isolated light showers will be across windward areas, though daytime sea breezes will generate clouds and a slight chance of showers across leeward terrain each afternoon.
The background winds will shift out of the north on Tuesday as a surface high racing across the Pacific along 32N nears our longitude. Ridging aloft will hold, keeping stable conditions in place and maintaining rather dry weather as a front approaches.
Tuesday night into Thursday, the surface high will pass north of the islands, bringing a brief shot of moderate to breezy trade winds and pushing the shallow and weak front over the islands. The ridge aloft will maintain stability and help focus rainfall over windward slopes, with minimal showers expected for leeward areas. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on the details, but expect the shallow front to reach Kauai late Tuesday, drift to the central portion of the island chain Wednesday, and dissipate near the eastern end of the state Thursday.
Stable and somewhat dry trade wind weather is favored by Friday, followed by a potential disruption of the trade winds next Sunday.
Aviation
A weak surface ridge north of the state will maintain light to locally moderate east to southeast winds across the islands. This will allow local afternoon sea breeze and nighttime land breeze circulations to develop across sheltered leeward sections of most of the islands through early Monday. Stable and dry atmospheric conditions across the region will continue to limit the coverage of showers during the next couple of days. Some low clouds and light showers moving into windward sections may cause brief periods of MVFR ceilings. In addition, cloudiness may increase over some leeward areas after the sea breezes form later today. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through early Monday morning.
Marine
A ridge of high pressure just north of the state will produce light east or variable breezes around Kauai, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the remainder of the state, through the day. The slight northward movement of this ridge Monday will allow for more areawide moderate east trades. The tail end of a cold front will pass through late Tuesday with high pressure filling in behind the boundary Wednesday. Veering mid week winds will strengthen, moderate to locally fresh north northeast winds, as a result of the tighter pressure gradient south of the high. There will be a higher probability for more shower activity Tuesday and Wednesday in association with the weak frontal passage.
The ongoing moderate size, medium period west northwest swell that peaked Friday will be slowly declining through the day. A fetch of gale force winds far northwest of the islands has generated a large, long period west northwest (310-320 degree) swell. This swell will begin to fill in around the islands later today and peak surf at XL warning levels along many north and west-facing shores Monday. This swell will slowly decline through the middle of the week. Weak trade flow and small background south swell will equate to small surf along east and south-facing shores through the week.
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