Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 65 to 84. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 65 to 84. Light winds.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 65 to 84. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 65 to 84. Light winds.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. Light winds.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Light winds.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A dry weather pattern will continue for at least the next couple of days. Light to moderate south to southwest winds are expected over Kauai and Oahu today, with winds becoming light and variable over all islands from Christmas Day into Tuesday. Light to moderate trade winds may make a short-lived appearance around the middle of next week, before diminishing again by the end of the week.
Discussion
A strong zonal jet across the N Pacific will ensure that an E-W oriented surface ridge remains near the islands well into next week, generally keeping winds light. A mid-level ridge will build directly overhead and remain in place through the remainder of the year, severely limiting any chance of rainfall.
In the short term, a rapidly-developing hurricane-force low will pass well to the N today, but will tighten the low-level gradient over the islands. With the surface ridge along 20N, moderate to locally breezy SW winds are expected over Kauai and Oahu, with lighter S to SW winds over Maui and Hawaii counties allowing island- scale land and sea breezes to prevail. No significant increase in moisture is expected, and conditions will be dry nearly everywhere. Some thin high clouds will move over the islands within the strong jet, but will diminish Sunday and Monday.
As the low departs, the ridge will gradually move N, with the light wind land/sea breeze pattern spreading to all islands Sunday into Tuesday. A period of light to moderate E-SE trade winds may occur by the middle of the week (a little sooner for the Big Island) as the ridge moves N of all islands, with light winds thereafter as the ridge moves S again.
Aviation
Rather benign weather is expected today with dry conditions and partly cloudy skies for the majority of the island chain. Expect light to moderate southwesterly flow to prevail. An upper trough will continue to move over the state from west to east and will likely generate turbulence in the mid to upper levels. See SIGMET TANGO below for more details.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate turbulence between FL180 and FL250. See SIGMET XRAY series for severe turbulence, which covers the mid to upper levels above the whole island chain.
Marine
Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds will continue over the Kauai and Oahu waters today as low pressure passes by to the north, while variable winds over the rest of the state shift out of the south to southeast direction and increase to light to moderate. Overall, wind speeds will begin to relax through the second half of the weekend and early next week as a ridge builds in over the islands. A brief return of moderate to fresh trades is possible Tuesday through midweek as the ridge shifts north of the area.
Surf along north and west facing shores of the smaller islands will hold at high-end advisory levels through the weekend due to overlapping northwest swells. These swells will keep seas at or around the Small Craft Advisory level (10 ft) through Sunday as well. A downward trend is anticipated early next week as these swells move out. To finish off the year, the active pattern for surf along exposed north and west facing shores will persist, with a rising trend potentially beginning as early as Wednesday. Surf along east and south facing shores will remain small due to the lack trade winds and any significant south swells.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for North and West facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai and for North facing shores of Maui.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters.
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