Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Wind speeds will gradually ease today through Wednesday, giving way to a land and sea breeze weather pattern Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest. The front will bring a period of wet weather to portions of the state Thursday night into Saturday, likely followed by unsettled conditions early next week.

Discussion

Wind speeds will decrease beginning today as a high far north of the islands passes northeastward. Expect typical trade wind weather to focus clouds and showers across windward slopes, along with afternoon clouds and spotty showers across leeward and interior areas of the Big Island, today into early Wednesday. By late Wednesday, trades may weaken enough for afternoon sea breezes to develop across leeward areas. This could produce enhanced afternoon cloud cover and a few leeward showers.
Models show developing upper troughing near and north of Hawaii later in the week. Local winds will become light southwesterly on Thursday as a front approaches from the northwest and the ridge aloft steadily erodes. Afternoon sea breezes will produce spotty interior showers, some possible heavy, followed by an increase in moisture Thursday night ahead of the front. The front will likely move over the western end of the state sometime Friday and fall apart over the central or southern end of the island chain Saturday. A stronger front may affect the area early next week as a deep low sets up north of Hawaii. Breezy to windy southwest flow could develop as early as Sunday, and wet and unsettled weather is becoming increasing likely.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will begin to ease as the day progresses, but remain moderate to breezy in most areas. Winds will ease further tonight. Showers, and accompanying MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities, will mainly affect windward and mauka sections statewide.
An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is in effect for portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. And the AIRMET for low-level turbulence downwind of higher elevations remains posted across the island chain.

Marine

Surface high pressure centered approximately 1,550 miles north northeast of Oahu is pressing a tight enough pressure gradient down across the islands to maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds through this afternoon. As this high moves away to the northeast and a large storm low replaces it north of the area, the regional pressure gradient will become slack enough to weaken local winds to more moderate magnitudes through mid-week. A cold front will approach the offshore waters from the west Thursday and further weaken winds while veering them around the southern half of the dial. Late week winds are forecast to become light to gentle northerly breezes before strengthening ahead of a strong storm system moving in from the northwest early next week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all waters (except windward Kauai and windward Big Island zones) will be scaled back to only include the typical windy areas around Maui County and south of Big Island through tonight.
A series of small size, medium period northwest to north swells will result in small rises to the surf along north and west-facing shores through Wednesday. A large northwest swell arriving Friday has the potential to lift surf to near High Surf Warning levels along many north and west-facing shores. In the long term, model guidance has been consistently bringing in a large, medium period northwest swell from a relatively close, favorable island direction long gale fetch source early next week. If this swell does materialize, it has a high chance of producing solid warning level surf for most north and western island exposures. Strong trades will keep eastern shore surf slightly elevated through the day. Rough eastern nearshore water conditions will noticeably improve through mid-week in response to weakening winds. South- facing shore surf will remain small with only background south swell energy passing through the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov