Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kohala

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 63 to 79. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Partly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure north of the state will keep breezy to locally windy conditions in place today. The trades will gradually ease tonight and Tuesday, but locally breezy conditions are expected to continue. Light to moderate showers will continue to primarily impact windward and mauka areas during the next couple days. Some brief downpours will be possible especially over windward Maui and the Big Island. Winds will diminish and rain chances will briefly decrease around mid week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front could bring an increase in wet weather Thursday night and Friday, with another front potentially bringing some more wet weather late in the weekend.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a pair of strong highs area located to the distant northeast and north of the islands and are producing breezy to locally windy trades across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds producing partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the greatest over windward areas. Radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into windward areas, with the decaying showers reaching leeward areas as well due to the strength of the trades. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next few days.
High pressure northeast of the state will gradually weaken as it edges slowly east-southeast today, while a new strong high builds north of the island chain during the next couple of days. Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected to continue today, and the Wind Advisory has been extended for the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island through 6 PM this evening. The trades will gradually ease tonight and Tuesday, although breezy conditions are expected to continue. A more noticeable decrease in the trades is expected on Wednesday as a front approaches from the northwest. The wind forecast remains uncertain toward the end of the week as model consistency and run to run continuity continues to be poor. Overall, lighter winds should prevail Thursday through Saturday, with the potential for breezy southwesterly winds to develop on Sunday.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather will prevail through Tuesday, with bands of clouds and showers moving through from time to time. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but will also reach leeward areas due to the strength of the trades. The coverage and intensity of showers will remain a bit higher than normal through Tuesday, particularly over the eastern end of the state, as some upper level energy rotates southward through the islands raising inversion heights. Shower coverage should decrease Wednesday through Thursday as the trades become disrupted with the approach of a cold front. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, considerable uncertainty remains in the forecast late in the week, so we will take a blended forecast approach until details become more clear. Overall, it appears that chances for rainfall will increase Thursday night and Friday, and perhaps again late in the weekend as front approach and move through the island chain.

Aviation

Breezy to locally strong trade winds will persist through Tuesday as robust high pressure hangs on far north and northeast of the islands. Showers, and occasional MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities, will affect windward and mauka sections of the islands. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for windward sides of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island, and will likely continue through the morning. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere.
AIRMET Tango continues for low-level moderate turbulence leeward of the mountains for all islands, which will continue through at least Tuesday.

Marine

High pressure to the far northeast of the islands will continue to drive fresh to locally strong winds across the local waters during the next few days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) continues for all marine zones through this afternoon. As trades weaken slightly on Tuesday, the SCA may be scaled back to the typical windy areas only. An approaching front will cause trades to decrease below SCA thresholds around the middle of the week. Lighter winds will then prevail over local waters Thursday through the end of the work week.
A series of small northwest and north swells will give surf a small bump along north and west facing shores through Wednesday. The potential for a new large northwest swell could bring near warning level surf to north and west facing shores late this week although forecast confidence remains low.
Strong trade winds will keep east shore surf slightly elevated through Tuesday. Surf along east facing shores will lower to near or below normal levels around the middle of the week as the trades back off. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with only background south swell energy through the middle of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Maui Central Valley South, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov