Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Gusts up to 25 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 68 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 64 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A weak high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate trade winds in the forecast through Friday, then winds will strengthen to breezy conditions this weekend as the ridge builds north of the state. Two passing upper troughs today and Thursday will keep brief periods of showers in the forecast mainly over windward and mountain areas, favoring the overnight to early morning hours.
Discussion
A band of deeper low clouds and showers shown on GOES satellite imagery is currently drifting through Oahu and Maui County this morning. Radar imagery shows cloud tops to around 10,000 feet elevation within this band that is producing moderate showers across the central islands. These showers will linger over windward slopes of Maui and northern sections of the Big Island into the afternoon hours as these clouds continue to drift slowly down the island chain. A weakening cold front, roughly 400 miles north of Kauai, continues to slowly approach the state. This front will stall and dissipate before reaching the islands. A few high level cirrus clouds are also passing from west to east over the state, enhancing sunrise and sunset colors.
A high pressure system far northwest of the state will move towards the Hawaii region and weaken. A weakening cold frontal band between the high center and the islands will tend to keep trade wind speeds in the moderate range today. The front fades by Wednesday as the high center weakens with continued moderate trade winds in the forecast through Friday. A stronger high builds in from the west starting late Friday, this system will pass eastward, just north of the state, and produce a round of breezy trade winds over the weekend. Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue into the first half of next week as a strong high will linger northeast of the island chain. There is also the potential for a cut off upper low forming near the Big Island shown by both models around Monday.
On the weather side expect typical trade wind weather with passing upper level troughs today and Thursday keeping brief periods of showers in the forecast through Friday. These passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. The weather conditions may change a bit early next week as much will depend upon the location of an unstable upper low lurking near the Big Island.
Aviation
Moderate trade winds will persist through twenty-four hours and beyond, steering bands of showers off the Pacific towards windward slopes and coasts.
As of 2 AM this morning, late night radar imagery showed a well defined band of moderate showers extending from Oahu to just north of Maui. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for Oahu and Molokai, and may need to be expanded to include Maui or Windward Big Island later today. Conditions are expected to gradually improve from the west after sunrise.
AIRMET Tango for moderate turbulence over and immediately south through west of mountains remains in effect for all islands.
Marine
Surface high pressure will exist north of the state in some form over the next week, maintaining trade winds through this week. Trade winds are expected to gradually weaken a bit and shift to a more easterly direction through mid-week. Much stronger trades are possible this weekend as a strong surface high sets up far northeast of the area.
The next northwest swell is scheduled to arrive late this afternoon with marginal advisory conditions possible along many north and west facing exposures late tonight into Wednesday. Offshore buoys have picked up some energy overnight but have not indicated advisory level size surf yet. This swell will be reinforced by a more northerly swell late Wednesday into Thursday.
The trade winds over and upstream of the islands are generating choppy, rough seas along east facing shores, but will decline through the middle of the week as winds briefly taper off. East shores exposed to the north swell may see an uptick in surf by Wednesday. South shores will remain very small with a minor bump of long period background south swell to fill in later in the week.
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