Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 75 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 73 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 75 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 75 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 69 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 54 to 61 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Monday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to 70 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Showers will expand across the state today as an area of moisture drifts across the region. An area of deep low pressure exiting well northwest of Hawaii will re-establish the ridge north of the state and strengthen trade wind flow through the middle of this week. This will reinforce a typical trade wind weather pattern through Wednesday. Trade winds will weaken slightly and veer southeast Thursday and Friday, as another area of low pressure develops northwest of the state.
Discussion
Radar trends this morning show the areal coverage of showers expanding westward across the islands, with the most persistent showers around the Big Island and windward areas of the smaller islands. Satellite trends show a similar pattern, with moisture and cloud cover drifting westward across the state while jet dynamics enhance upper clouds west of Kauai.
The areal coverage of showers will continue to increase across the eastern and central islands this morning, spreading westward across the remainder of the islands by this afternoon. CIMSS satellite based imagery continues to show increased RH with layered precipitable water values nearing 1.80 inches, streaming in from the east. This matches well with the morning HTO sounding showing a PW value of 1.73 inches. Rainfall early this morning has been limited, however a few locations around the Big Island have already seen amounts in excess of one half inch. These locally enhanced showers will continue across the islands through this afternoon, as model data shows moisture depths increasing to over 13k feet today. The most persistent showers will remain across windward areas of the central and eastern islands where moisture depths will be greatest. An upper level ridge building across the state through early next week, should help generate moderately stable conditions and limit widespread heavy rainfall threats for most locations. Tonight through Wednesday, a return to more shallow layered moisture will combine with persistent trade wind flow to maintain showers across mainly windward zones, with overnight and early morning hours seeing the most persistent rainfall.
Another low pressure system developing northwest of the islands later in the week, will slowly drop southward, though maintaining a track west of the Kauai. This pattern will slightly weaken the surface pressure gradient and trade winds some, as the winds trend more southeastward Thursday and Friday. Expect another potential uptick in the areal coverage of rainfall to end the work week, as models indicate another band of deeper layered moisture drifting across the state from the east. There continues to be some differences in model solutions late next week, though trends suggest high pressure trying to reestablish a drier typical trade wind pattern next weekend.
Aviation
Trade winds will gradually strengthen today as high pressure begins to build in north of the state. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and are expected to continue through the forecast period. Clouds and a few passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas. No AIRMETS are in effect and none are expected this morning. However, if trade winds strengthen sufficiently later today, AIRMET Tango for terrain-induced turbulence may be needed.
Marine
The upper level low and associated trough north of the islands that has been producing recently light western water winds and more moderate eastern water east southeast winds will lift north northwest through the day. Upper ridging will take hold over the state the next couple days as surface high pressure re-establishes itself far northeast of the region. As this occurs, local near and offshore water east trade winds will restrengthen back to more moderate to fresh magnitudes, locally strong across the windy zones by this evening. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect within the notoriously windier bays and channels around Maui County and Big Island, as well as south of Big Island, from tonight through Tuesday afternoon.
A small, short period southeast swell will fade through the day as a small, medium period south swell continues to decline into Tuesday. A small, long period reinforcement south swell arrives late Tuesday and will pass around the islands through next weekend. A moderate size, short period north swell will peak today before a slightly longer period northwest swell arrives late Monday and fills in through Tuesday. Choppy wind wave surf will continue along east-facing shores the next several days.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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