Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 69 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening, then scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 69 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Scattered showers early in the evening. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 52 to 59 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Trade winds will weaken through Saturday, remain on the lighter side through the weekend, then increase again early next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward areas during nights and mornings, but the lighter winds will allow sea breezes to drive cloud and shower formation over leeward and interior areas in the afternoons. An increase in moisture tonight into Saturday is expected to fuel increased shower coverage, especially windward.
Discussion
An area of showery low clouds is embedded within moderate trade flow and continues to spread showers across windward and mauka areas this morning. Trade winds will gradually diminish through Saturday, then slowly strengthen Sunday into next week. While diminished, trade winds will remain strong enough this weekend to bring showers to windward areas, especially during nights and mornings. However, winds will also be sufficiently light to allow land and sea breezes over leeward areas. Land breezes will ensure mostly clear skies leeward during nights and mornings, while sea breezes will support the development of clouds and showers over leeward and interior areas during afternoons and evenings. Strengthening trades are expected early next week, delivering brief passing showers to windward areas.
An increase in low-level moisture and the development of a weak upper trough north of Kauai through Saturday will increase windward shower coverage, and may allow sea breeze showers to drop briefly heavy rainfall. Otherwise, our airmass will be relatively stable and significant rainfall accumulation is not expected. Models show a significant northward surge of tropical moisture around Tuesday, potentially clipping the Big Island. Our current forecast does not anticipate this somewhat dubious scenario, which would bring rainfall to the islands, but we will continue to monitor for potential changes to the forecast.
Aviation
Early this morning, deeper low level moisture being advected towards the islands from the east has enhanced windward shower activity and cloud coverage. Periodic MVFR ceilings and visibilities within showers have been observed, and will continue to be possible through the rest of the morning. AIRMET Sierra has been issued for tempo mountain obscuration for north through east sections of all main Hawaiian Islands and will likely remain in effect through midday.
Light to locally moderate trade winds will continue to gradually weaken today through Saturday as surface high pressure far northeast of the state dissipates and is eventually replaced with a new high that will slowly move towards the islands early next week. The result will be light to locally moderate trades remaining strong enough to focus showers and clouds across windward locations (especially during the overnight through early morning hours), but weak enough to support nighttime land breezes and afternoon sea breezes for leeward locations.
Marine
Moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will continue today, then shift out of the east and ease into the gentle to moderate category Saturday as high pressure to the north weakens. Land and sea breeze conditions near the coasts will result, which should persist through Sunday. Trade winds will return to moderate to fresh levels Monday, then hold through midweek.
Surf along south facing shores will trend up through the day Saturday, peak around the advisory level late Sunday through Monday, then slowly ease through midweek as a south-southwest swell moves through. A medium period southeast swell will pick up Monday, then peak late Tuesday through midweek, which will add to the mix along exposed shores. Surf will return to typical summer levels late next week.
Surf along east facing shores will ease into the weekend as the trades back off, but may come up Sunday if a long-period easterly swell from former Hurricane Kay in the far eastern Pacific materializes. Small and choppy surf will pick up next week as the trades return.
Surf along north facing shores will remain small through next week, with no significant sources expected in the long range.
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