Today: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with showers likely in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 69 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 70 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy with occasional showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 52 to 59 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 87 near the shore to 71 to 77 above 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Locally breezy trade winds will deliver an area of showery low clouds today into tonight, fueling an increase in windward showers. Trades will diminish slightly on Tuesday, and may ease further later in the week, delivering periodic clouds and showers to windward areas.
Discussion
In summary, moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist for most of the upcoming week as high pressure prevails to the distant N. The trades will deliver patches of low-level moisture that will fuel periodic showers over windward areas, with showers most active during nights and mornings. A trend toward lighter winds is expected toward the end of the week as the high moves to the distant NE Pacific.
After a fairly dry night statewide, yet another area of increased low-level moisture will be moving in from the E today and tonight, bringing showers mainly to windward areas. The leading edge of this particular batch of moisture is now moving into windward Big Island, with model guidance indicating that it will spread to windward portions of Maui County by mid-morning, Oahu in the late afternoon/early evening, and Kauai this evening/overnight. The subsidence inversion will continue to weaken and rise up to 12,000 ft, which will allow for moderate showers to develop, with a few heavier rain cores possible, especially over leeward Big Island this afternoon and evening. With the inversion elevated, showers will periodically spread to leeward areas elsewhere. Overall, rainfall totals are not expected to be significant as showers will not remain over any one area for very long.
Trade winds will drop slightly by Tuesday as the moisture clears the islands to the W, with winds changing little through Thursday as the surface high reorganizes further N. The island atmosphere will be fairly stable and typical shower activity will be focused over windward areas, as well as leeward Big Island slopes. Model guidance differs on the details of the the large scale pattern across the Pacific later in the week, and of importance to Hawaii, the position of the surface high. Generally speaking however, we expect a trend toward lighter trade winds. The weaker winds will likely allow afternoon sea breezes to drive cloud and shower development over leeward areas of the islands, while also delivering a few windward showers. A nearby upper level troughing may enhance shower intensity toward the end of the week.
Aviation
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for at least the next 24 hours. A low level trough moving through the Big Island this morning will sweep westward across the state, spreading clouds and enhanced showers across the eastern islands this morning, and then spreading westward into Molokai, Lanai, Oahu and Kauai from the afternoon to evening hours. Low cloud cover may trigger mountain obscurations and heavier showers that will lead to periods of MVFR conditions, especially over windward airfields.
AIRMET Sierra in effect this morning for mountain obscuration over the windward areas of the Big Island. This AIRMET will expand to Maui later this morning and may continue to expand westward to other islands through the afternoon to evening hours.
Marine
Surface high pressure positioned north of the state will keep the pressure gradient down across the state tight enough to support moderate to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui County and Big Island through this afternoon. North Pacific systems look to become more progressive in their eastward treks as high pressure to the west travels into the northeastern Pacific late this week and weakens the regional gradient and subsequent winds.
High swell from storm and gale force wind fetch regions near New Zealand and the Tasman Sea will be directed towards the islands. These swells are timed to reach our local waters next weekend and will likely produce increased surf heights along many south-facing shores. A series of small, medium period north swells from a couple of systems northwest of the state will provide a minor bump to late week north shore surf. Near term east wind wave chop will remain slightly elevated under these generally moderate to fresh east trades over and upstream of the islands. East swell generated from eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Kay may also arrive over the weekend.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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