Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through tonight, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. A transition to a land and sea breeze regime is expected late Wednesday, that will persist through the second half of the week as an upper disturbance and surface trough move in from the east. Clouds and showers will shift to interior and mountain locations through the afternoon hours where sea breezes form each day. A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is anticipated this weekend.
Discussion
Moderate to breezy trade winds will hold through tonight, then ease Wednesday as an upper low and surface trough approach and move in from the east. Despite the stable conditions in place associated with a strong upper ridge and subsidence inversion, spotty windward and mauka showers will continue. An increase in deep layer moisture combined with the added instability from the aforementioned upper low and surface trough could fuel localized heavy showers, and a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out over the eastern end of the state tonight through Wednesday. Once the surface trough moves through, the low-level flow will shift out of the east-southeast late Wednesday through the second half of the week. This pattern shift will translate to a land and sea breeze regime setting up, which will support a few spotty afternoon showers over our leeward areas.
Increasing trade winds and a stable shower pattern will return this weekend.
Aviation
Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through today, before easing tonight. Low clouds and showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with a few showers reaching leeward areas as well due to the strength of the trades. As the showers move through some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected in windward areas, while VFR conditions prevail in leeward locales.
AIRMET SIERRA remains in effect for windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Conditions should improve here later this morning.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the day, with turbulence decreasing tonight.
Marine
A high pressure system will linger far north of the Hawaiian Islands. A surface trough will move into the northern waters Wednesday through Thursday, causing the trade wind speeds to weaken. Lighter trade winds will allow land and sea breezes to develop along the near shore waters from tonight through Friday morning. Trade winds will strengthen on Friday and return into the fresh to locally strong range over the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) was extended through the afternoon for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. This SCA will likely be dropped by tonight. Unstable conditions will arrive later tonight through Wednesday as an upper level disturbance passes over northern Big Island and Maui waters producing isolated thunderstorms.
A south swell currently affecting local waters will keep surf heights elevated along south facing shores today. Surf heights will decrease from tonight onward as this south swell energy declines. Only small background south swells are expected from Wednesday through the weekend, keeping lower surf heights along south facing shores.
Surf along east facing shores will hold steady today. Wind waves will decrease on Wednesday as trades ease; however distant tropical activity in the eastern Pacific will send a small, medium period, east swell into the area from tonight through Friday. This east swell will produce a slight boost to east shore surf during this period of lighter trade winds. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat this week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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