Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 73 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 69 to 74 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
High pressure far to the north of the islands will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the middle of next week. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, mainly at night and during the early morning hours, with a stray shower reaching leeward communities from time to time.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1400 miles north-northeast of Honolulu while a weak trough of low pressure is located around 750 miles northeast of the state. The gradient across the islands is producing moderate trade winds early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy conditions across the smaller islands and leeward sections of the Big Island, with mostly cloudy skies over windward Big Island. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with a few light showers making the trip over the mountains and into leeward communities. Main focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances through the next 7 days.
The trough of low pressure northeast of the islands will slide westward well to the north of the state during the next couple days. This will likely ease the trades ever so slightly today through Saturday, with the trades then increasing back to moderate to locally breezy levels Sunday through the middle of next week as strong high pressure anchors to the distant north- northeast. The trades may decrease late next week as the remnant trough of former tropical cyclone Estelle nears the islands.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather will continue through the middle of next week. Showers will be most prevalent at night and during the early morning hours, favoring windward and mauka areas as they typically due. We could see an increase in trade wind showers late next week if the remnant trough of Estelle moves through the island chain, but it could be drier than normal if the trough and associated moisture passes by to the north of the state. Still too much uncertainty in the later portions of the forecast to shy away from climatology, so we will continue to keep a close eye on model trends as the remnants of Estelle approach the islands from the east during the next few days.
Aviation
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will steer ragged bands of scattered light showers towards the islands. Isolated MVFR CIG or VIS possible in passing showers, especially along north and east facing slopes and coasts. Shower activity may increase in the evening hours. Mountain obscuration could become an issue for windward Big Island late tonight or Saturday morning.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level mechanical turbulence south thru west of mountains on Maui and the Big Island. Conditions should improve later today as the winds aloft gradually weaken.
Marine
High pressure centered far north of the state will sustain moderate to fresh trade winds into next week. For the time being, winds have eased below the 25-knot threshold for a Small Craft Advisory for coastal waters. However, they will remain near that level over the next several days in the typically breezy zones around Maui County and the Big Island.
Only small surf is expected through this weekend along south facing shores. A new small, long-period south swell could give south shore surf a small boost early next week. A much larger long-period south swell is forecast to arrive late next week, potentially pushing south shore surf back up around the advisory level of 10 feet.
Steady trade wind swell will keep east shore surf near, or slightly below, average levels during the next week. A small, longer period east swell associated with former tropical cyclone Estelle may give surf a small boost over the weekend. And north shore surf will remain nearly flat during the next 7 days.
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